Working Paper 268 - Measuring Resilience to Climate Change in Ethiopia

Resilience comprises anticipative, mitigative, adaptive, reactive, and transformative capacities. This paper pioneer an approach of measuring resilience using the Resilient Capacity Index (RCI) by considering all the dimensions. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to give relevant weights to the different indicators. OLS and censored regression analysis were used to identify determinants of resilience. The findings indicated that HHs living in the same geographic locations have different levels of resilience. The average RCI for highland, midland and lowland were 0.14, 0.116 and 0.037, respectively, which indicates that HHs in the highland were relatively more resilient. In terms of the specific indicators, the lowland agro climate was better in anticipative, absorptive, and reactive capacities, while those in the highland and midland locations were better in their capacities to mitigate, adapt and transform. Similarly the result indicated that wealth, literacy level, saving behavior, and access to traditional early warning were determinants of resilience in the lowland. Vegetation cover, farm conservation, access to irrigation, and access to credit were determinants of resilience in the highlands, while types of land owned, access to conventional early warning, and access to disaster risk reduction/climate change adaptation (DRR/CCA) learning were important across all climatic zones.