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Alternative Tax Rules and Personal Saving Incentives: Microeconomic Data and Behavioral Simulations

In: Behavioral Simulation Methods in Tax Policy Analysis

  • Martin S. Feldstein
  • Daniel R. Feenberg

This study examines the potential effects on personal savings of alternative types of tax rules. The analysis makes use of two extensive samples of information on individual savings and financial income: the 1972 Consumer Expenditure Survey and a stratified random sample of 26,000 individual tax returns for that year. The first type of tax rule that we consider would permit all tax-payers to make tax deductible contributions to individual savings accounts. The interest and dividends earned in these accounts would also accumulate untaxed. A potential problem with any such plan is that Individuals could in principle obtain tax deductions without doing any additional saving merely by transferring pre-existing assets into the special accounts. The evidence that we have examined indicates that this Is not likely to be important in practice since most taxpayers currently have little or no financial assets with which to make such transfers. For example, a plan permitting contributions of 10 percent of wages up to $2000 a year would exhaust all the pre-existing assets of 75 per-cent of households in just 2 years. Our evidence also shows that a ceiling on annual contributions of 10 percent of wages still leaves an increased saving incentive for more than 80 percent of households since fewer than 20 percent of households currently save as much as 10 percent a year. Specific simulations of a variety of such proposals show that even when income and substitution effects balance for a representative taxpayer (implying no change in his consumption) aggregate saving would rise considerably. The second type of tax rule that we examine would increase the current $200 interest and dividend exclusion. In 1972, among families with incomes of $20,000 to $30,000, 55 percent had more than $200 of interest and dividends; for those with incomes of at least $30,000, 82 percent had more than $200 of interest and dividends. For such families, the$200exclusion provides no incentive for additiona

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This chapter was published in:
  • Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Behavioral Simulation Methods in Tax Policy Analysis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number feld83-2, September.
  • This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number 7709.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:7709
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    1. Charles Becker & Don Fullerton, 1980. "Income Tax Incentives to Promote Saving," NBER Working Papers 0487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Mirrlees, J. A., 1976. "Optimal tax theory : A synthesis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 327-358, November.
    3. Feldstein, Martin S, 1970. "Inflation, Specification Bias, and the Impact of Interest Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 1325-39, Nov.-Dec..
    4. Boskin, Michael J, 1978. "Taxation, Saving, and the Rate of Interest," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(2), pages S3-27, April.
    5. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-29, June.
    6. Lawrence H. Summers, 1978. "Tax Policy in a Life Cycle Model," NBER Working Papers 0302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Michael J. Boskin, 1978. "Taxation, Saving, and the Rate of Interest," NBER Chapters, in: Research in Taxation, pages 3-27 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. M. S. Feldstein & S. C. Tsiang, 1968. "The Interest Rate, Taxation, and the Personal Savings Incentive," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(3), pages 419-434.
    9. Green, Jerry & Sheshinski, Eytan, 1978. "Optimal Capital-Gains Taxation Under Limited Information," Scholarly Articles 3210340, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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