IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/mgt/micp15/461-479.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

When Can We Call It “Extraordinary Circumstances”? Examination of Currency Exchange Rate Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Domagoj Sajter

    (University of J. J. Strossmayer, Croatia)

Abstract

Immediately after Swiss Central Bank withdrew from controlling CHF/EUR exchange rate in January 2015, CHF/HRK rate rose 15%, thereby substantially propagating Croatian credit default rates, non-performing loans and inciting broad socio-political consequences. The purpose of this paper is to examine (ab)normality of currency exchange rate distributions across Europe, focusing on Croatia, with the aim of identifying situations which could be defined as extraordinary circumstances. These can be embedded as triggering events in wide array of legal contracts. Historical data on exchange rates of European currencies is obtained and observed for its statistical distribution characteristics. “Fat tails” are found to be rule rather than exception, even witnessing shocks with magnitude of more than 100 standard deviations. Aside from lessons for risk management in a financial system which should endure these quakes, there are implications for policymakers, but above all for citizens struggling to fulfil their credit obligations under unexpected conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Domagoj Sajter, 2015. "When Can We Call It “Extraordinary Circumstances”? Examination of Currency Exchange Rate Shocks," MIC 2015: Managing Sustainable Growth; Proceedings of the Joint International Conference, Portorož, Slovenia, 28–30 May 2015,, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper.
    • Handle: RePEc:mgt:micp15:461-479
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.fm-kp.si/zalozba/ISBN/978-961-266-181-6/163.pdf
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
    2. Bubák, Vít & Kocenda, Evzen & Zikes, Filip, 2011. "Volatility transmission in emerging European foreign exchange markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2829-2841, November.
    3. Elif Nuroglu & Robert M. Kunst, 2012. "The effects of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows: evidence from panel data analysis and fuzzy approach," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 30(1), pages 9-31.
    4. Ozer-Imer, Itir & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2014. "An empirical analysis of currency volatilities during the recent global financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 394-406.
    5. Srdjan Tatomir, 2009. "Exchange Market Pressure on the Croatian Kuna," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 33(2), pages 187-199.
    6. Evan Kraft, 2003. "Monetary Policy under Dollarisation: The Case of Croatia," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 45(3), pages 256-277, September.
    7. Coudert, Virginie & Couharde, Cécile & Mignon, Valérie, 2011. "Exchange rate volatility across financial crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3010-3018, November.
    8. Kevin Dowd & Margaret Woods & John Cotter & Chris Humphrey, 2010. "How Unlucky is 25-Sigma?," Working Papers 200838, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    9. Laurent E. Calvet, 2004. "How to Forecast Long-Run Volatility: Regime Switching and the Estimation of Multifractal Processes," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 49-83.
    10. Ewing, Bradley T. & Payne, James E. & Caporin, Massimilano, 2022. "The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Prices and Production on Drilling Rig Trajectory: A correction," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    11. Pong, Shiuyan & Shackleton, Mark B. & Taylor, Stephen J. & Xu, Xinzhong, 2004. "Forecasting currency volatility: A comparison of implied volatilities and AR(FI)MA models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 2541-2563, October.
    12. Faiz Bilquees Tahir Mukhtar Saqib Jalil Malik, 2010. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Growth: Evidence from Selected South Asian Countries," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 13(2), pages 27-37, November.
    13. Josip Tica, 2006. "Exchange Rate Economics in Transition Economies," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 9(2), pages 155-170, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Do, Hung Xuan & Brooks, Robert & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon, 2015. "Realized spill-over effects between stock and foreign exchange market: Evidence from regional analysis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 24-37.
    2. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "The contribution of jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Post-Print halshs-01442618, HAL.
    3. Do, Hung Xuan & Brooks, Robert & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon & Wu, Eliza, 2014. "How does trading volume affect financial return distributions?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 190-206.
    4. Bjoern Schulte-Tillmann & Mawuli Segnon & Timo Wiedemann, 2023. "A comparison of high-frequency realized variance measures: Duration- vs. return-based approaches," CQE Working Papers 10523, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    5. Ammann, Manuel & Buesser, Ralf, 2013. "Variance risk premiums in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 16-32.
    6. Sattarhoff, Cristina & Lux, Thomas, 2023. "Forecasting the variability of stock index returns with the multifractal random walk model for realized volatilities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1678-1697.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim & Kretschmer, Uta & Pigorsch, Christian & Tauchen, George, 2009. "A discrete-time model for daily S & P500 returns and realized variations: Jumps and leverage effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 151-166, June.
    8. Asai, Manabu & Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael, 2017. "Realized stochastic volatility with general asymmetry and long memory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 199(2), pages 202-212.
    9. Manabu Asai & Michael McAleer, 2017. "A fractionally integrated Wishart stochastic volatility model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1-3), pages 42-59, March.
    10. Santos, Douglas G. & Candido, Osvaldo & Tófoli, Paula V., 2022. "Forecasting risk measures using intraday and overnight information," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    11. Adam Aleksander Majewski & Giacomo Bormetti & Fulvio Corsi, 2014. "Smile from the Past: A general option pricing framework with multiple volatility and leverage components," Papers 1404.3555, arXiv.org.
    12. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Darby, Julia, 2012. "Forecasting Volatility in Developing Countries' Nominal Exchange Returns," MPRA Paper 40875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. S. Garg & Vipul, 2014. "Volatility forecasting performance of two-scale realized volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(17), pages 1111-1121, September.
    14. Dimitrios P. Louzis & Spyros Xanthopoulos-Sisinis & Apostolos P. Refenes, 2012. "Stock index realized volatility forecasting in the presence of heterogeneous leverage effects and long range dependence in the volatility of realized volatility," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(27), pages 3533-3550, September.
    15. Chen, Fei & Diebold, Francis X. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2013. "A Markov-switching multifractal inter-trade duration model, with application to US equities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 320-342.
    16. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2007. "Roughing It Up: Including Jump Components in the Measurement, Modeling, and Forecasting of Return Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(4), pages 701-720, November.
    17. Manabu Asai & Michael McAleer & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2012. "Asymmetry and Long Memory in Volatility Modeling," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 495-512, June.
    18. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2015. "Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness: A Network Approach to Measurement and Monitoring," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199338306.
    19. Cordis, Adriana S. & Kirby, Chris, 2014. "Discrete stochastic autoregressive volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 160-178.
    20. Baruník, Jozef & Kočenda, Evžen & Vácha, Lukáš, 2016. "Asymmetric connectedness on the U.S. stock market: Bad and good volatility spillovers," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 55-78.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mgt:micp15:461-479. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alen Jezovnik (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fmkupsi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.