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How Unlucky is 25-Sigma?

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Listed:
  • Kevin Dowd
  • John Cotter
  • Chris Humphrey
  • Margaret Woods

Abstract

One of the more memorable moments of last summer's credit crunch came when the CFO of Goldman Sachs, David Viniar, announced in August that Goldman's flagship GEO hedge fund had lost 27% of its value since the start of the year. As Mr. Viniar explained, "We were seeing things that were 25-standard deviation moves, several days in a row."

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Dowd & John Cotter & Chris Humphrey & Margaret Woods, 2011. "How Unlucky is 25-Sigma?," Papers 1103.5672, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1103.5672
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    Blog mentions

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    1. Possible pitfalls of a 1-in-X approach to financial stability
      by BankUnderground in Bank Underground on 2020-02-06 09:00:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Eiji Goto & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Tara M. Sinclair & Simon van Norden, 2023. "Employment reconciliation and nowcasting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 1007-1017, November.
    2. Jakob Moggia, 2021. "Moral Responsibility for Systemic Financial Risk," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 461-473, March.
    3. Jean-Edouard Colliard, 2019. "Strategic Selection of Risk Models and Bank Capital Regulation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 2591-2606, June.
    4. Herring, Richard J., 2018. "The Evolving Complexity of Capital Regulation," Working Papers 18-01, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    5. Kevin Dowd, 2015. "Central Bank Stress Tests: Mad, Bad, and Dangerous," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 35(3), pages 507-524, Fall.
    6. Jingnan Chen & Mark D. Flood & Richard B. Sowers, 2017. "Measuring the unmeasurable: an application of uncertainty quantification to Treasury bond portfolios," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(10), pages 1491-1507, October.
    7. Domagoj Sajter, 2015. "When Can We Call It “Extraordinary Circumstances”? Examination of Currency Exchange Rate Shocks," MIC 2015: Managing Sustainable Growth; Proceedings of the Joint International Conference, Portorož, Slovenia, 28–30 May 2015,, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper.
    8. Kevin Dowd & Martin Hutchinson, 2014. "How Should Financial Markets Be Regulated?," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 34(2), pages 353-388, Spring/Su.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

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