IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/zbw/espost/251823.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Energy Consumption Prediction in Iran: A Hybrid Machine Learning and Genetic Algorithm Method with Sustainable Development Considerations

Author

Listed:
  • Fatemi Bushehri, Seyyed Mohammad Mehdi
  • Dehghan Khavari, Saeed
  • Mirjalili, Seyed Hossein
  • Babaei Meybodi, Hamid
  • Sardari Zarchi, Mohsen

Abstract

Ensuring energy security is a major concern of policymakers and economic planners. This objective could be achieved by managing the energy supply and its demand. The latter has received less attention, especially in developing countries. Neglect of energy consumption and its accurate forecasting leads to potential outages and also unsustainable development. Nonlinear methods that are consistent with the nature of energy consumption have led to better results. Therefore, in the present study, both aspects of sustainable development in the determinants of energy demand and the nonlinear hybrid method have been used. We introduced a model based on sustainable development indicators to forecast energy consumption in Iran in which the relevant indicators are specified by the determination phase. To forecast energy consumption, we provided a new standard dataset for energy consumption in Iran (IREC) based on the data extracted from the World Bank and Ministry of Energy dataset in Iran. The highlight of this research is that it provided the most efficient features from the dataset using the genetic algorithm and five forecasting approaches based on machine learning methods. The algorithm was able to select 14 features as the most effective indicators in predicting energy consumption from all the 104 ones in the IREC with 500 repetitions. The empirical results indicated that the model can provide important indicators for energy consumption forecasting. The experiment result of the model using the GA-Based feature selection indicates that the hybrid model has had better results and GA-SVM and GA-MLP have the best result respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Fatemi Bushehri, Seyyed Mohammad Mehdi & Dehghan Khavari, Saeed & Mirjalili, Seyed Hossein & Babaei Meybodi, Hamid & Sardari Zarchi, Mohsen, 2022. "Energy Consumption Prediction in Iran: A Hybrid Machine Learning and Genetic Algorithm Method with Sustainable Development Considerations," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 6(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:251823
    DOI: 10.22097/EEER.2022.307251.1224
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/251823/1/EEER-Energy-prediction-Iran.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22097/EEER.2022.307251.1224?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pino-Mejías, Rafael & Pérez-Fargallo, Alexis & Rubio-Bellido, Carlos & Pulido-Arcas, Jesús A., 2017. "Comparison of linear regression and artificial neural networks models to predict heating and cooling energy demand, energy consumption and CO2 emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 24-36.
    2. Xiao, Jin & Li, Yuxi & Xie, Ling & Liu, Dunhu & Huang, Jing, 2018. "A hybrid model based on selective ensemble for energy consumption forecasting in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 534-546.
    3. Zaher Abusaq & Sadaf Zahoor & Muhammad Salman Habib & Mudassar Rehman & Jawad Mahmood & Mohammad Kanan & Ray Tahir Mushtaq, 2023. "Improving Energy Performance in Flexographic Printing Process through Lean and AI Techniques: A Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-15, February.
    4. Hu, Huanling & Wang, Lin & Peng, Lu & Zeng, Yu-Rong, 2020. "Effective energy consumption forecasting using enhanced bagged echo state network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    5. Somu, Nivethitha & M R, Gauthama Raman & Ramamritham, Krithi, 2020. "A hybrid model for building energy consumption forecasting using long short term memory networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xin Ma & Yubin Cai & Hong Yuan & Yanqiao Deng, 2023. "Partially Linear Component Support Vector Machine for Primary Energy Consumption Forecasting of the Electric Power Sector in the United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-26, April.
    2. Fang, Lei & He, Bin, 2023. "A deep learning framework using multi-feature fusion recurrent neural networks for energy consumption forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).
    3. Liu, Che & Li, Fan & Zhang, Chenghui & Sun, Bo & Zhang, Guanguan, 2023. "A day-ahead prediction method for high-resolution electricity consumption in residential units," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    4. Razak Olu-Ajayi & Hafiz Alaka & Hakeem Owolabi & Lukman Akanbi & Sikiru Ganiyu, 2023. "Data-Driven Tools for Building Energy Consumption Prediction: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-20, March.
    5. Hu, Huanling & Wang, Lin & Lv, Sheng-Xiang, 2020. "Forecasting energy consumption and wind power generation using deep echo state network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 598-613.
    6. Elsa Chaerun Nisa & Yean-Der Kuan, 2021. "Comparative Assessment to Predict and Forecast Water-Cooled Chiller Power Consumption Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning Algorithms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-18, January.
    7. Oğuzhan Timur & Halil Yaşar Üstünel, 2025. "Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting for an Industrial Plant Using Machine Learning-Based Algorithms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-22, February.
    8. Yesilyurt, Hasan & Dokuz, Yesim & Dokuz, Ahmet Sakir, 2024. "Data-driven energy consumption prediction of a university office building using machine learning algorithms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    9. Somu, Nivethitha & Raman M R, Gauthama & Ramamritham, Krithi, 2021. "A deep learning framework for building energy consumption forecast," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    10. Ivan S. Maksymov, 2023. "Analogue and Physical Reservoir Computing Using Water Waves: Applications in Power Engineering and Beyond," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-26, July.
    11. Ijaz Ul Haq & Amin Ullah & Samee Ullah Khan & Noman Khan & Mi Young Lee & Seungmin Rho & Sung Wook Baik, 2021. "Sequential Learning-Based Energy Consumption Prediction Model for Residential and Commercial Sectors," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-17, March.
    12. Luo, X.J. & Oyedele, Lukumon O. & Ajayi, Anuoluwapo O. & Akinade, Olugbenga O. & Owolabi, Hakeem A. & Ahmed, Ashraf, 2020. "Feature extraction and genetic algorithm enhanced adaptive deep neural network for energy consumption prediction in buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    13. Bienvenido-Huertas, David & Moyano, Juan & Rodríguez-Jiménez, Carlos E. & Marín, David, 2019. "Applying an artificial neural network to assess thermal transmittance in walls by means of the thermometric method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 1-14.
    14. Bai, Yulong & Liu, Ming-De & Ding, Lin & Ma, Yong-Jie, 2021. "Double-layer staged training echo-state networks for wind speed prediction using variational mode decomposition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    15. Qing Yin & Chunmiao Han & Ailin Li & Xiao Liu & Ying Liu, 2024. "A Review of Research on Building Energy Consumption Prediction Models Based on Artificial Neural Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-30, September.
    16. Mohammad Kanan & Ansa Rida Dilshad & Sadaf Zahoor & Amjad Hussain & Muhammad Salman Habib & Amjad Mehmood & Zaher Abusaq & Allam Hamdan & Jihad Asad, 2023. "An Empirical Study of the Implementation of an Integrated Ergo-Green-Lean Framework: A Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-24, June.
    17. Yongjie Yang & Yulong Li & Yan Cai & Hui Tang & Peng Xu, 2024. "Data-Driven Golden Jackal Optimization–Long Short-Term Memory Short-Term Energy-Consumption Prediction and Optimization System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-20, July.
    18. Byung-Ki Jeon & Eui-Jong Kim, 2021. "LSTM-Based Model Predictive Control for Optimal Temperature Set-Point Planning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-14, January.
    19. Stefenon, Stefano Frizzo & Seman, Laio Oriel & Aquino, Luiza Scapinello & Coelho, Leandro dos Santos, 2023. "Wavelet-Seq2Seq-LSTM with attention for time series forecasting of level of dams in hydroelectric power plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    20. Kwak, Sanghyeok & Choi, Jaehong & Lee, Min Chul & Yoon, Youngbin, 2021. "Predicting instability frequency and amplitude using artificial neural network in a partially premixed combustor," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:251823. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zbwkide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.