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Predicting Prices Of Financial Assets: From Classical Economics To Intelligent Finance

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  • SERGE HAYWARD

    (Écoles Supérieures de Commerce Dijon (ESC), Burgundy School of Business, France;
    SKOLKOVO School of Management, Russia;
    SKOLKOVO School of Management, China)

Abstract

Determining the circumstances under which it is possible to make any sort of prediction is a fundamental question in financial research. The presence of complex and robust statistical characteristics, exhibited by most financial time series, raise doubts on the simple relationship between information and price changes, as implied by the efficient market hypothesis. In this paper, we consider the main competing economic hypotheses and examine different approaches for learning the price behaviour in financial markets. Our analysis reveals the need to approach the problem from a new perspective. In financial markets, traders are not only adapting, but also determine and form the economic mechanism essentially by their actions. In these settings, financial markets are evolutionary structures of competing trading strategies; prices in such markets are driven endogenously by the induced expectations. A combination of economics, computer and cognitive science in cross-disciplinary study of intelligent finance, which aims to explore information about financial markets from multiple perspectives, is expected to expand the boundary of pure economic analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Serge Hayward, 2011. "Predicting Prices Of Financial Assets: From Classical Economics To Intelligent Finance," New Mathematics and Natural Computation (NMNC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(02), pages 229-247.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:nmncxx:v:07:y:2011:i:02:n:s1793005711001901
    DOI: 10.1142/S1793005711001901
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gerunov, Anton, 2014. "Критичен Преглед На Основните Подходи За Моделиране На Икономическите Очаквания [A Critical Review of Major Approaches for Modeling Economic Expectations]," MPRA Paper 68797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Concetta Sorropago, 2014. "Behavioral Finance and Agent Based Model: the new evolving discipline of quantitative behavioral finance ?," DIAG Technical Reports 2014-13, Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering, Universita' degli Studi di Roma "La Sapienza".

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