IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/ijtafx/v22y2019i01ns0219024919500122.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measuring Default Risk For A Portfolio Of Equities

Author

Listed:
  • MATHEUS PIMENTEL RODRIGUES

    (Sao Paulo School of Economics, FGV, Itapeva St., 474 Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil)

  • ANDRE CURY MAIALY

    (Sao Paulo School of Economics, FGV, Itapeva St., 474 Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil)

Abstract

This work evaluates some changes proposed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision in regulating capital allocation in the trading book for equities following a company default. In the last decade, the committee designed some measures to account for the risk of a company default that the ten-day value-at-risk measure does not capture. The first and more conservative measure designed to capture the effect of defaults was the incremental risk charge. With time, this measure evolved into the default risk charge. We use a Merton model to compute the probability of default and compare this probability to simulated asset returns in order to compute the one-year value-at-risk and capture the risk of a company default. The analysis compares portfolios of Ibovespa companies and S&P 500 companies. Additionally, we propose a method to account for the correlation in the companies and compare the effects of the standard method of capital allocation to those of our models.

Suggested Citation

  • Matheus Pimentel Rodrigues & Andre Cury Maialy, 2019. "Measuring Default Risk For A Portfolio Of Equities," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(01), pages 1-21, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:22:y:2019:i:01:n:s0219024919500122
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219024919500122
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0219024919500122
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S0219024919500122?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xiao, Tim, 2018. "Incremental Risk Charge Methodology," SocArXiv y43dx, Center for Open Science.
    2. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    3. Yavin, Tzahi & Zhang, Hu & Wang, Eugene & Clayton, Michael, 2011. "Transition Probability Matrix Methodology for Incremental Risk Charge," MPRA Paper 28740, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Laurent, Jean-Paul & Sestier, Michael & Thomas, Stéphane, 2016. "Trading book and credit risk: How fundamental is the Basel review?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 211-223.
    5. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    6. Tzahi Yavin & Hu Zhang & Eugene Wang & Michael A. Clayton, 2011. "Transition Probability Matrix Methodology for Incremental Risk Charge," Papers 1102.3857, arXiv.org.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jeremy Leake, 2003. "Credit spreads on sterling corporate bonds and the term structure of UK interest rates," Bank of England working papers 202, Bank of England.
    2. Zhijian (James) Huang & Yuchen Luo, 2016. "Revisiting Structural Modeling of Credit Risk—Evidence from the Credit Default Swap (CDS) Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-20, May.
    3. Sandrine Lardic & Claire Gauthier, 2003. "Un modèle multifactoriel des spreads de crédit : estimation sur panels complets et incomplets," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 159(3), pages 53-69.
    4. Alessandra Ortolano & Eliana Angelini, 2020. "Do CDS spread determinants affect the probability of default? A study on the EU banks," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 51(1), pages 1-32.
    5. António Afonso & Jorge Braga Ferreira, 2024. "Bank’s Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy and TLTRO: Evidence from the Eurozone," CESifo Working Paper Series 11116, CESifo.
    6. Wang, Peiwen & Chen, Minghua & Wu, Ji & Yan, Yuanyun, 2023. "Do peer effects matter in bank risk? Some cross-country evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    7. Bjork, Tomas, 2009. "Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780199574742.
    8. Koharki, Kevin & Watson, Luke, 2025. "Risk-taking incentives and firm credit risk11The authors thank Kristine W. Hankins (editor), the anonymous associate editor and two anonymous reviewers, workshop participants at Lehigh University, Nor," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    9. Klomp, Jeroen, 2013. "Government interventions and default risk: Does one size fit all?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 641-653.
    10. Jobst, Andreas A., 2014. "Measuring systemic risk-adjusted liquidity (SRL)—A model approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 270-287.
    11. Rafal M. Wojakowski & M. Shahid Ebrahim & Aziz Jaafar & Murizah Osman Salleh, 2019. "Can Loan Valuation Adjustment (LVA) approach immunize collateralized debt from defaults?," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(2), pages 141-158, May.
    12. Augusto Castillo, 2004. "Firm and Corporate Bond Valuation: A Simulation Dynamic Programming Approach," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 41(124), pages 345-360.
    13. Nusrat Jahan, 2022. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Corporate Credit Spreads: Evidence from Canada," Carleton Economic Papers 22-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    14. John Y. Campbell & Glen B. Taksler, 2003. "Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2321-2350, December.
    15. Galai, Dan & Raviv, Alon & Wiener, Zvi, 2007. "Liquidation triggers and the valuation of equity and debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3604-3620, December.
    16. Schmidt, Frederik, 2009. "The Undervaluation of Distressed Company's Equity," MPRA Paper 13341, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Galil, Koresh & Varon, Eva, 2024. "National culture and banks stock volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    18. Michael C. Munnix & Rudi Schafer & Thomas Guhr, 2011. "A Random Matrix Approach to Credit Risk," Papers 1102.3900, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2011.
    19. Ahsan Habib & Mabel D' Costa & Hedy Jiaying Huang & Md. Borhan Uddin Bhuiyan & Li Sun, 2020. "Determinants and consequences of financial distress: review of the empirical literature," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(S1), pages 1023-1075, April.
    20. Mizen, Paul & Tsoukas, Serafeim, 2012. "The response of the external finance premium in Asian corporate bond markets to financial characteristics, financial constraints and two financial crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 3048-3059.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:22:y:2019:i:01:n:s0219024919500122. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/ijtaf/ijtaf.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.