IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/ijtafx/v21y2018i03ns0219024918500103.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Liquidation Risk Adjustment For Value At Risk And Expected Shortfall

Author

Listed:
  • LAKSHITHE WAGALATH

    (IESEG School of Management — LEM, (CNRS), 1 Parvis de la Défense, 92044, Paris La Défense Cedex, France†Instituto de Matematica Pura e Aplicada, Estr. Dona Castorina, 110, Jardim Botanico, Rio de Janeiro, RJ 22460-320, Brasil)

  • JORGE P. ZUBELLI

    (#x2020;Instituto de Matematica Pura e Aplicada, Estr. Dona Castorina, 110, Jardim Botanico, Rio de Janeiro, RJ 22460-320, Brasil)

Abstract

This paper proposes an intuitive and flexible framework to quantify liquidation risk for financial institutions. We develop a model where the “fundamental” dynamics of assets is modified by price impacts from fund liquidations. We characterize mathematically the liquidation schedule of financial institutions and study in detail the fire sales resulting endogenously from margin constraints when a financial institution trades through an exchange. Our study enables to obtain tractable formulas for the value at risk and expected shortfall of a financial institution in the presence of fund liquidation. In particular, we find an additive decomposition for liquidation-adjusted risk measures. We show that such a measure can be expressed as a “fundamental” risk measure plus a liquidation risk adjustment that is proportional to the size of fund positions as a fraction of asset market depths. Our results can be used by risk managers in financial institutions to tackle liquidity events arising from fund liquidations better and adjust their portfolio allocations to liquidation risk more accurately.

Suggested Citation

  • Lakshithe Wagalath & Jorge P. Zubelli, 2018. "A Liquidation Risk Adjustment For Value At Risk And Expected Shortfall," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(03), pages 1-21, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:21:y:2018:i:03:n:s0219024918500103
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219024918500103
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0219024918500103
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S0219024918500103?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yann Braouezec & Lakshithe Wagalath, 2016. "Risk-based capital requirements and optimal liquidation in a stress scenario," Working Papers 2016-ACF-01, IESEG School of Management.
    2. Rama Cont & Arseniy Kukanov & Sasha Stoikov, 2014. "The Price Impact of Order Book Events," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 47-88.
    3. Lakshithe Wagalath, 2017. "Lost In Contagion? Building A Liquidation Index From Covariance Dynamics," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(01), pages 1-26, February.
    4. Alexander J. McNeil & Rüdiger Frey & Paul Embrechts, 2015. "Quantitative Risk Management: Concepts, Techniques and Tools Revised edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 2, number 10496.
    5. Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2011. "Fire Sales in Finance and Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 29-48, Winter.
    6. Kempf, Alexander & Korn, Olaf, 1999. "Market depth and order size1," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 29-48, February.
    7. Lakshithe Wagalath, 2017. "Lost In Contagion? Building A Liquidation Index From Covariance Dynamics," Post-Print hal-01745354, HAL.
    8. Rama Cont & Lakshithe Wagalath, 2012. "Fire Sales Forensics: Measuring Endogenous Risk," Working Papers hal-00697224, HAL.
    9. Potters, Marc & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2003. "More statistical properties of order books and price impact," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 133-140.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Theo Berger & Christina Uffmann, 2021. "Assessing liquidity‐adjusted risk forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1179-1189, November.
    2. M. Andrea Arias-Serna & Jean-Michel Loubes & Francisco J. Caro-Lopera, 2020. "Risk Measures Estimation Under Wasserstein Barycenter," Papers 2008.05824, arXiv.org.
    3. David Evangelista & Yuri Thamsten, 2020. "On finite population games of optimal trading," Papers 2004.00790, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    4. Enrique Molina‐Muñoz & Andrés Mora‐Valencia & Javier Perote, 2021. "Backtesting expected shortfall for world stock index ETFs with extreme value theory and Gram–Charlier mixtures," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4163-4189, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lakshithe Wagalath, 2016. "Feedback effects and endogenous risk in financial markets," Finance, Presses universitaires de Grenoble, vol. 37(2), pages 39-74.
    2. Braouezec, Yann & Wagalath, Lakshithe, 2019. "Strategic fire-sales and price-mediated contagion in the banking system," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(3), pages 1180-1197.
    3. Lakshithe Wagalath, 2017. "Lost In Contagion? Building A Liquidation Index From Covariance Dynamics," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(01), pages 1-26, February.
    4. Ramadiah, Amanah & Caccioli, Fabio & Fricke, Daniel, 2020. "Reconstructing and stress testing credit networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    5. Kashyap, Ravi, 2020. "David vs Goliath (You against the Markets), A dynamic programming approach to separate the impact and timing of trading costs," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    6. Matthias Schnaubelt & Jonas Rende & Christopher Krauss, 2019. "Testing Stylized Facts of Bitcoin Limit Order Books," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-30, February.
    7. Filip Stanek & Jiri Kukacka, 2018. "The Impact of the Tobin Tax in a Heterogeneous Agent Model of the Foreign Exchange Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 865-892, April.
    8. Yann Braouezec & Lakshithe Wagalath, 2016. "Risk-based capital requirements and optimal liquidation in a stress scenario," Working Papers 2016-ACF-01, IESEG School of Management.
    9. Sornette, Didier & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2006. "Importance of positive feedbacks and overconfidence in a self-fulfilling Ising model of financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 370(2), pages 704-726.
    10. Qianhui Lai & Qiang Yang, 2025. "Deep Learning Strategies for Intraday Optimal Carbon Options Trading with Price Impact Considerations," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-20, March.
    11. J. Doyne Farmer & Austin Gerig & Fabrizio Lillo & Henri Waelbroeck, 2013. "How efficiency shapes market impact," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 1743-1758, November.
    12. J. Doyne Farmer & Laszlo Gillemot & Fabrizio Lillo & Szabolcs Mike & Anindya Sen, 2004. "What really causes large price changes?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 383-397.
    13. Philipp Weber & Bernd Rosenow, 2006. "Large stock price changes: volume or liquidity?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 7-14.
    14. Martin D. Gould & Mason A. Porter & Stacy Williams & Mark McDonald & Daniel J. Fenn & Sam D. Howison, 2010. "Limit Order Books," Papers 1012.0349, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2013.
    15. Schnaubelt, Matthias, 2020. "Deep reinforcement learning for the optimal placement of cryptocurrency limit orders," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 05/2020, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    16. Stanislao Gualdi & Giulio Cimini & Kevin Primicerio & Riccardo Di Clemente & Damien Challet, 2016. "Statistically validated network of portfolio overlaps and systemic risk," Papers 1603.05914, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2016.
    17. Yann Braouezec & Lakshithe Wagalath, 2018. "Risk-Based Capital Requirements and Optimal Liquidation in a Stress Scenario [Testing macroprudential stress tests: the risk of regulatory risk weights]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(2), pages 747-782.
    18. David Evangelista & Yuri Saporito & Yuri Thamsten, 2022. "Price formation in financial markets: a game-theoretic perspective," Papers 2202.11416, arXiv.org.
    19. Schnaubelt, Matthias, 2022. "Deep reinforcement learning for the optimal placement of cryptocurrency limit orders," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 296(3), pages 993-1006.
    20. Olivier Guéant, 2016. "The Financial Mathematics of Market Liquidity: From Optimal Execution to Market Making," Post-Print hal-01393136, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:21:y:2018:i:03:n:s0219024918500103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/ijtaf/ijtaf.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.