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On Different Types of Uncertainties in the Context of the Precautionary Principle

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  • Terje Aven

Abstract

Few policies for risk management have created more controversy than the precautionary principle. A main problem is the extreme number of different definitions and interpretations. Almost all definitions of the precautionary principle identify “scientific uncertainties” as the trigger or criterion for its invocation; however, the meaning of this concept is not clear. For applying the precautionary principle it is not sufficient that the threats or hazards are uncertain. A stronger requirement is needed. This article provides an in‐depth analysis of this issue. We question how the scientific uncertainties are linked to the interpretation of the probability concept, expected values, the results from probabilistic risk assessments, the common distinction between aleatory uncertainties and epistemic uncertainties, and the problem of establishing an accurate prediction model (cause‐effect relationship). A new classification structure is suggested to define what scientific uncertainties mean.

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  • Terje Aven, 2011. "On Different Types of Uncertainties in the Context of the Precautionary Principle," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(10), pages 1515-1525, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:31:y:2011:i:10:p:1515-1525
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01612.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Per Sandin & Martin Peterson & Sven Ove Hansson & Christina Rudén & André Juthe, 2002. "Five charges against the precautionary principle," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 287-299, October.
    2. Kumanan Wilson & Blair Leonard & Robert Wright & Ian Graham & John Moffet & Michael Pluscauskas & Michael Wilson, 2006. "Application of the Precautionary Principle by Senior Policy Officials: Results of a Canadian Survey," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(4), pages 981-988, August.
    3. Jonathan B. Wiener & Michael D. Rogers, 2002. "Comparing precaution in the United States and Europe," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 317-349, October.
    4. Jon C. Helton, 1994. "Treatment of Uncertainty in Performance Assessments for Complex Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 483-511, August.
    5. Terje Aven & Ortwin Renn, 2009. "The Role of Quantitative Risk Assessments for Characterizing Risk and Uncertainty and Delineating Appropriate Risk Management Options, with Special Emphasis on Terrorism Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(4), pages 587-600, April.
    6. Elizabeth Fisher & Judith Jones & René von Schomberg, 2006. "Implementing the Precautionary Principle: Perspectives and Prospects," Chapters, in: Elizabeth Fisher & Judith Jones & René von Schomberg (ed.), Implementing the Precautionary Principle, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Andy Stirling & Ortwin Renn & Patrick van Zwanenburg, 2006. "A Framework for the Precautionary Governance of Food Safety: Integrating Science and Participation in the Social Appraisal of Risk," Chapters, in: Elizabeth Fisher & Judith Jones & René von Schomberg (ed.), Implementing the Precautionary Principle, chapter 14, Edward Elgar Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Terje Aven, 2011. "Response," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(10), pages 1538-1542, October.
    2. Terje Aven, 2019. "Comments to Orri Stefánsson's Paper on the Precautionary Principle," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(6), pages 1223-1224, June.
    3. Aven, Terje, 2019. "The cautionary principle in risk management: Foundation and practical use," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    4. Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, Jr., 2011. "Clarifying Types of Uncertainty: When Are Models Accurate, and Uncertainties Small?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(10), pages 1530-1533, October.
    5. Vasco Barroso Gonçalves, 2020. "Uncertain Risk Assessment and Management: Case Studies of the Application of the Precautionary Principle in Portugal," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(5), pages 939-956, May.
    6. H. Orri Stefánsson, 2019. "On the Limits of the Precautionary Principle," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(6), pages 1204-1222, June.
    7. Barry Anderson & Emanuele Borgonovo & Marzio Galeotti & Roberto Roson, 2014. "Uncertainty in Climate Change Modeling: Can Global Sensitivity Analysis Be of Help?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(2), pages 271-293, February.
    8. Kjell Hausken, 2018. "Formalizing the Precautionary Principle Accounting for Strategic Interaction, Natural Factors, and Technological Factors," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(10), pages 2055-2072, October.
    9. Jamie K. Wardman & Ragnar Löfstedt, 2018. "Anticipating or Accommodating to Public Concern? Risk Amplification and the Politics of Precaution Reexamined," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(9), pages 1802-1819, September.
    10. Kjell Hausken, 2019. "Principal–Agent Theory, Game Theory, and the Precautionary Principle," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 16(2), pages 105-127, June.
    11. Hausken, Kjell, 2021. "The precautionary principle as multi-period games where players have different thresholds for acceptable uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    12. Terje Aven & Ortwin Renn, 2012. "On the Risk Management and Risk Governance of Petroleum Operations in the Barents Sea Area," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(9), pages 1561-1575, September.
    13. Kenisha Garnett & David J. Parsons, 2017. "Multi‐Case Review of the Application of the Precautionary Principle in European Union Law and Case Law," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 502-516, March.
    14. Young Jun Choi & Mi Sun Jeon, 2020. "How Business Interests and Government Inaction Led to the Humidifier Disinfectant Disaster in South Korea: Implications for Better Risk Governance," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 240-253, February.

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