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A discounted machine‐replacement model with an expected future technological breakthrough

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  • Tzvi Goldstein
  • Shaul P. Ladany
  • Abraham Mehrez

Abstract

A machine‐replacement problem is analyzed in a technological‐development environment, in which a new‐type machine (built by a new technology) may appear in the future. The solution of the replacement problem depends on purchasing, operating, and resale costs, and on the probability distribution of the market debut of the new technology, and it indicates whether to replace the existing machine now with an available similar type of machine, or to continue to operate the existing machine for at least one more period. A dynamic discounted cost model is presented, and a method is suggested for finding the optimal age for replacement of an existing machine (under rather general conditions of a technological environment). A solution procedure and a numerical example are given.

Suggested Citation

  • Tzvi Goldstein & Shaul P. Ladany & Abraham Mehrez, 1988. "A discounted machine‐replacement model with an expected future technological breakthrough," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(2), pages 209-220, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:navres:v:35:y:1988:i:2:p:209-220
    DOI: 10.1002/1520-6750(198804)35:23.0.CO;2-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philip J. Boland, 1982. "Periodic replacement when minimal repair costs vary with time," Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(4), pages 541-546, December.
    2. Suresh Chand & Suresh Sethi, 1982. "Planning horizon procedures for machine replacement models with several possible replacement alternatives," Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(3), pages 483-493, September.
    3. Utterback, James M & Abernathy, William J, 1975. "A dynamic model of process and product innovation," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 3(6), pages 639-656, December.
    4. Suresh Sethi & Suresh Chand, 1979. "Planning Horizon Procedures for Machine Replacement Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(2), pages 140-151, February.
    5. Sethi, Suresh P. & Taksar, Michael I. & Presman, Ernst L., 1995. "Erratum," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-7), pages 1297-1298.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sampath Rajagopalan & Medini R. Singh & Thomas E. Morton, 1998. "Capacity Expansion and Replacement in Growing Markets with Uncertain Technological Breakthroughs," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(1), pages 12-30, January.
    2. Israel David & Eitan Greenshtein & Avraham Mehrez, 1997. "A dynamic‐programming approach to continuous‐review obsolescent inventory problems," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(8), pages 757-774, December.
    3. Wallace J. Hopp & Suresh K. Nair, 1991. "Timing replacement decisions under discontinuous technological change," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 203-220, April.
    4. Mørch, Ove & Fagerholt, Kjetil & Pantuso, Giovanni & Rakke, Jørgen, 2017. "Maximizing the rate of return on the capital employed in shipping capacity renewal," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 42-53.
    5. S. Bylka & S. Sethi & G. Sorger, 1992. "Minimal forecast horizons in equipment replacement models with multiple technologies and general switching costs," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 487-507, June.

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