IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/navres/v35y1988i2p209-220.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A discounted machine‐replacement model with an expected future technological breakthrough

Author

Listed:
  • Tzvi Goldstein
  • Shaul P. Ladany
  • Abraham Mehrez

Abstract

A machine‐replacement problem is analyzed in a technological‐development environment, in which a new‐type machine (built by a new technology) may appear in the future. The solution of the replacement problem depends on purchasing, operating, and resale costs, and on the probability distribution of the market debut of the new technology, and it indicates whether to replace the existing machine now with an available similar type of machine, or to continue to operate the existing machine for at least one more period. A dynamic discounted cost model is presented, and a method is suggested for finding the optimal age for replacement of an existing machine (under rather general conditions of a technological environment). A solution procedure and a numerical example are given.

Suggested Citation

  • Tzvi Goldstein & Shaul P. Ladany & Abraham Mehrez, 1988. "A discounted machine‐replacement model with an expected future technological breakthrough," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(2), pages 209-220, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:navres:v:35:y:1988:i:2:p:209-220
    DOI: 10.1002/1520-6750(198804)35:23.0.CO;2-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/1520-6750(198804)35:23.0.CO;2-3
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/1520-6750(198804)35:23.0.CO;2-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Suresh Chand & Suresh Sethi, 1982. "Planning horizon procedures for machine replacement models with several possible replacement alternatives," Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(3), pages 483-493, September.
    2. Utterback, James M & Abernathy, William J, 1975. "A dynamic model of process and product innovation," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 3(6), pages 639-656, December.
    3. Suresh Sethi & Suresh Chand, 1979. "Planning Horizon Procedures for Machine Replacement Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(2), pages 140-151, February.
    4. Philip J. Boland, 1982. "Periodic replacement when minimal repair costs vary with time," Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(4), pages 541-546, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sampath Rajagopalan & Medini R. Singh & Thomas E. Morton, 1998. "Capacity Expansion and Replacement in Growing Markets with Uncertain Technological Breakthroughs," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(1), pages 12-30, January.
    2. Israel David & Eitan Greenshtein & Avraham Mehrez, 1997. "A dynamic‐programming approach to continuous‐review obsolescent inventory problems," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(8), pages 757-774, December.
    3. Wallace J. Hopp & Suresh K. Nair, 1991. "Timing replacement decisions under discontinuous technological change," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 203-220, April.
    4. Mørch, Ove & Fagerholt, Kjetil & Pantuso, Giovanni & Rakke, Jørgen, 2017. "Maximizing the rate of return on the capital employed in shipping capacity renewal," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 42-53.
    5. S. Bylka & S. Sethi & G. Sorger, 1992. "Minimal forecast horizons in equipment replacement models with multiple technologies and general switching costs," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 487-507, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. A. Bensoussan & Q. Feng & S. P. Sethi, 2022. "Integrating equipment investment strategy with maintenance operations under uncertain failures," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 317(2), pages 353-386, October.
    2. Wallace J. Hopp & Suresh K. Nair, 1991. "Timing replacement decisions under discontinuous technological change," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 203-220, April.
    3. Awi Federgruen & Michal Tzur, 1996. "Detection of minimal forecast horizons in dynamic programs with multiple indicators of the future," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(2), pages 169-189, March.
    4. S. Bylka & S. Sethi & G. Sorger, 1992. "Minimal forecast horizons in equipment replacement models with multiple technologies and general switching costs," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 487-507, June.
    5. Ali Dogramaci & Nelson M. Fraiman, 2004. "Replacement Decisions with Maintenance Under Uncertainty: An Imbedded Optimal Control Model," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 52(5), pages 785-794, October.
    6. Baldwin, Carliss Y. & Bogers, Marcel L.A.M. & Kapoor, Rahul & West, Joel, 2024. "Focusing the ecosystem lens on innovation studies," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(3).
    7. Roger Hayter & Klaus Edenhoffer, 2016. "Evolutionary Geography of a Mature Resource Sector: Shakeouts and Shakeins in British Columbia's Forest Industries 1980 to 2008," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(4), pages 497-519, December.
    8. Cecere, Grazia & Corrocher, Nicoletta & Battaglia, Riccardo David, 2015. "Innovation and competition in the smartphone industry: Is there a dominant design?," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 162-175.
    9. Ieda Margarete Oro & Carlos Eduardo Facin Lavarda, 2017. "Interaction Between Strategy and Organizational Performance: The Influence of Family Management," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 14(5), pages 493-509, September.
    10. Singh, Anuraag & Triulzi, Giorgio & Magee, Christopher L., 2021. "Technological improvement rate predictions for all technologies: Use of patent data and an extended domain description," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(9).
    11. Albert, Till & Moehrle, Martin G. & Meyer, Stefan, 2015. "Technology maturity assessment based on blog analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 196-209.
    12. Cappetta, Rossella & Cillo, Paola & Ponti, Anna, 2006. "Convergent designs in fine fashion: An evolutionary model for stylistic innovation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 1273-1290, November.
    13. Christina Öberg, 2016. "How Innovation Impacts Artistic Creativity — Managing Innovation In The Advertising Sector," International Journal of Innovation Management (ijim), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(04), pages 1-23, May.
    14. Cincera, Michele & Ince, Ela & Santos, Anabela, 2024. "Revisiting the innovation-competition nexus: Evidence from worldwide manufacturing and service industries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 586-603.
    15. Vialle, Pierre & Song, Junjie & Zhang, Jian, 2012. "Competing with dominant global standards in a catching-up context. The case of mobile standards in China," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 832-846.
    16. Montserrat Manzaneque & Alfonso A. Rojo-Ramírez & Julio Diéguez-Soto & Maria J. Martínez-Romero, 2020. "How negative aspiration performance gaps affect innovation efficiency," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 209-233, January.
    17. Sharon Belenzon & Victor Manuel Bennett & Andrea Patacconi, 2019. "Flexible Production and Entry: Institutional, Technological, and Organizational Determinants," Strategy Science, INFORMS, vol. 4(3), pages 193-216, September.
    18. Franco Malerba & Richard Nelson & Luigi Orsenigo & Sidney Winter, 2008. "Vertical integration and disintegration of computer firms: a history-friendly model of the coevolution of the computer and semiconductor industries," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 17(2), pages 197-231, April.
    19. Steven Klepper & Sally Sleeper, 2005. "Entry by Spinoffs," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(8), pages 1291-1306, August.
    20. Lionel Nesta & Vincent Mangematin, 2002. "Industry Life Cycle, Knowledge Generation and Technological Networks," Grenoble Ecole de Management (Post-Print) hal-03398092, HAL.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:navres:v:35:y:1988:i:2:p:209-220. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)1520-6750 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.