IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jfutmk/v45y2025i8p1049-1070.html

Greeks‐Neutral Option Excess Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Yaofei Xu
  • Yi Hong
  • Pei Jose Liu
  • Zhendong Zhang

Abstract

This study investigates the linkage between ex‐ante expected greeks‐neutral excess return ( EER GN) and ex‐post realized greeks‐neutral excess return ( RER GN). Employing the top‐down framework, we show that EER GN is determined by the difference between the market‐derived implied volatility and the estimated implied volatility absent arbitrage opportunities. Serving EER GN as the optimal predictor of RER GN, we first find that EER GN positively predicts RER GN. Second, the bottom‐up EER GN complements the top‐down EER GN, enhancing the prediction of RER GN. Third, the 10‐1 portfolios formed on EER GN realize positive excess returns and sizeable Sharpe ratios in the future. The IPCA that employs information from different measures and terms generates superior performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Yaofei Xu & Yi Hong & Pei Jose Liu & Zhendong Zhang, 2025. "Greeks‐Neutral Option Excess Returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(8), pages 1049-1070, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:45:y:2025:i:8:p:1049-1070
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22598
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.22598
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/fut.22598?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bakshi, Gurdip & Cao, Charles & Chen, Zhiwu, 1997. "Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2003-2049, December.
    2. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
    3. Bates, David S, 1996. "Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 69-107.
    4. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2020. "Option Profit and Loss Attribution and Pricing: A New Framework," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(4), pages 2271-2316, August.
    5. Byun, Suk-Joon & Kim, Da-Hea, 2016. "Gambling preference and individual equity option returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 155-174.
    6. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    7. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
    8. Büchner, Matthias & Kelly, Bryan, 2022. "A factor model for option returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 1140-1161.
    9. Mathieu Fournier & Kris Jacobs & Piotr Orłowski, 2024. "Modeling Conditional Factor Risk Premia Implied by Index Option Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 2289-2338, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sanjay K. Nawalkha & Xiaoyang Zhuo, 2022. "A Theory of Equivalent Expectation Measures for Contingent Claim Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(5), pages 2853-2906, October.
    2. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Li, Chenxu & Li, Chen Xu, 2021. "Closed-form implied volatility surfaces for stochastic volatility models with jumps," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 364-392.
    3. Jitka Hilliard & Wei Li, 2014. "Volatilities implied by price changes in the S&P 500 options and futures contracts," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 599-626, May.
    4. Kozarski, R., 2013. "Pricing and hedging in the VIX derivative market," Other publications TiSEM 221fefe0-241e-4914-b6bd-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Antonio Cosma & Stefano Galluccio & Paola Pederzoli & O. Scaillet, 2012. "Valuing American Options Using Fast Recursive Projections," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 12-26, Swiss Finance Institute.
    6. Neumann, Maximilian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2016. "Jump and variance risk premia in the S&P 500," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 72-83.
    7. Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk, 2013. "The dynamics of commodity prices," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 527-542, March.
    8. Ying Chang & Yiming Wang & Sumei Zhang, 2021. "Option Pricing under Double Heston Jump-Diffusion Model with Approximative Fractional Stochastic Volatility," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-10, January.
    9. Feng, Chengxiao & Tan, Jie & Jiang, Zhenyu & Chen, Shuang, 2020. "A generalized European option pricing model with risk management," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    10. Beliaeva, Natalia & Nawalkha, Sanjay, 2012. "Pricing American interest rate options under the jump-extended constant-elasticity-of-variance short rate models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 151-163.
    11. Gonçalo Faria & João Correia-da-Silva, 2014. "A closed-form solution for options with ambiguity about stochastic volatility," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 125-159, July.
    12. Wajih Abbasi & Petr H jek & Diana Ismailova & Saira Yessimzhanova & Zouhaier Ben Khelifa & Kholnazar Amonov, 2016. "Kou Jump Diffusion Model: An Application to the Standard and Poor 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 Index Options," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 1918-1929.
    13. Branger, Nicole & Schlag, Christian & Schneider, Eva, 2008. "Optimal portfolios when volatility can jump," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1087-1097, June.
    14. Alessandra Cretarola & Gianna Figà-Talamanca & Marco Patacca, 2025. "Option pricing in a sentiment-biased stochastic volatility model," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 69-95, March.
    15. Gurdip Bakshi & Charles Cao & Zhaodong (Ken) Zhong, 2021. "Assessing models of individual equity option prices," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 1-28, July.
    16. Bin Xie & Weiping Li & Nan Liang, 2021. "Pricing S&P 500 Index Options with L\'evy Jumps," Papers 2111.10033, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    17. Bégin, Jean-François & Gómez, Fabio & Ignatieva, Katja & Li, Han, 2025. "The stochastic behavior of electricity prices under scrutiny: Evidence from spot and futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    18. Hilliard, Jimmy E. & Hilliard, Jitka & Ngo, Julie T.D., 2024. "Implied parameter estimation for jump diffusion option pricing models: Pricing accuracy and the role of loss and evaluation functions," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    19. Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs & Chayawat Ornthanalai, 2009. "Exploring Time-Varying Jump Intensities: Evidence from S&P500 Returns and Options," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-34, CIRANO.
    20. Xu, Weidong & Wu, Chongfeng & Li, Hongyi, 2011. "Foreign equity option pricing under stochastic volatility model with double jumps," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1857-1863, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:45:y:2025:i:8:p:1049-1070. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-7314/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.