IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jforec/v45y2026i3p1177-1187.html

A Comparative Forecasting Framework for Turkey–Germany Trade: Evidence From Time Series and Artificial Neural Networks Models

Author

Listed:
  • Seyma Nur Unal
  • Huseyin Karamelikli

Abstract

This paper examines the trade relationship between Turkey and Germany by generating strategically consistent forecasts for import and export flows using time series models and artificial neural networks (ANNs). Utilizing monthly trade data from 2002 to 2021, the study compares traditional time series approaches with nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) ANNs. The results show that a single‐hidden‐layer NARX model with four lags provides the most accurate forecasts across commodity sections, outperforming alternative specifications. Although the models effectively capture overall trade dynamics, the analysis indicates that forecast performance varies across disaggregated sectors. The study demonstrates the usefulness of ANN‐based forecasting for short‐term trade planning while also noting limitations related to data length and model generalizability. The findings offer policy‐relevant insights for improving trade strategy, enhancing early‐warning mechanisms, and supporting data‐driven decision‐making in bilateral trade management.

Suggested Citation

  • Seyma Nur Unal & Huseyin Karamelikli, 2026. "A Comparative Forecasting Framework for Turkey–Germany Trade: Evidence From Time Series and Artificial Neural Networks Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(3), pages 1177-1187, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:45:y:2026:i:3:p:1177-1187
    DOI: 10.1002/for.70084
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/for.70084
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/for.70084?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ahmet Eren Yildirim & Taha Bahadır Saraç, 2022. "Exchange rate volatility and Turkey-Germany bilateral trade: An asymmetry analysis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 783-797, July.
    2. Koffi Dumor & Komlan Gbongli, 2021. "Trade impacts of the New Silk Road in Africa: Insight from Neural Networks Analysis," Theory Methodology Practice (TMP), Faculty of Economics, University of Miskolc, vol. 17(02), pages 13-26.
    3. Koffi Dumor & Li Yao, 2019. "Estimating China’s Trade with Its Partner Countries within the Belt and Road Initiative Using Neural Network Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-22, March.
    4. Yonis Gulzar & Ceren Oral & Mehmet Kayakus & Dilsad Erdogan & Zeynep Unal & Nisa Eksili & Pınar Celik Caylak, 2024. "Predicting High Technology Exports of Countries for Sustainable Economic Growth by Using Machine Learning Techniques: The Case of Turkey," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-20, June.
    5. Jane Binner & Rakesh Bissoondeeal & Thomas Elger & Alicia Gazely & Andrew Mullineux, 2005. "A comparison of linear forecasting models and neural networks: an application to Euro inflation and Euro Divisia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 665-680.
    6. Tarlok Singh, 2010. "Does International Trade Cause Economic Growth? A Survey," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(11), pages 1517-1564, November.
    7. Morland, Christian & Tandetzki, Julia & Schier, Franziska, 2025. "An evaluation of gravity models and artificial neuronal networks on bilateral trade flows in wood markets," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    8. Nowrouz Kohzadi & Milton S. Boyd & Iebeling Kaastra & Bahman S. Kermanshahi & David Scuse, 1995. "Neural Networks for Forecasting: An Introduction," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 43(3), pages 463-474, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. A. Malliaris & Mary Malliaris, 2013. "Are oil, gold and the euro inter-related? Time series and neural network analysis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 1-14, January.
    2. Philipp Heimberger, 2022. "Does economic globalisation promote economic growth? A meta‐analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(6), pages 1690-1712, June.
    3. Kamei, Keita, 2013. "Does Agricultural Productivity Growth Promote a Dynamic Comparative Advantage in the Manufacturing Sector?," MPRA Paper 48603, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Tekin, Rıfat Barış, 2012. "Economic growth, exports and foreign direct investment in Least Developed Countries: A panel Granger causality analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 868-878.
    5. Shuofen Hsu & Chaohsin Lin & Yaling Yang, 2008. "Integrating Neural Networks for Risk‐Adjustment Models," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 75(3), pages 617-642, September.
    6. Tseng, Chih-Hsiung & Cheng, Sheng-Tzong & Wang, Yi-Hsien & Peng, Jin-Tang, 2008. "Artificial neural network model of the hybrid EGARCH volatility of the Taiwan stock index option prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(13), pages 3192-3200.
    7. Liyanaarachchi, Tilak Susantha & Bandara, Layatilleke S. & Naranpanawa, Athula, . "A Quantitive Evaluation of the Potential Effects of Trade Policy Reversal in Sri Lanka: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis," Sri Lankan Journal of Agricultural Economics, Sri Lanka Agricultural Economics Association (SAEA), vol. 16, pages 1-26.
    8. Ritzel, Christian & Kohler, Andreas, 2017. "Protectionism, how stupid is this? The causal effect of free trade for the world’s poorest countries: Evidence from a quasi-experiment in Switzerland," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1007-1018.
    9. T. Gries & M. Redlin, 2020. "Trade and economic development: global causality and development- and openness-related heterogeneity," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 923-944, October.
    10. Pierluigi Montalbano & Silvia Nenci & Carlo Pietrobelli, 2018. "Opening and linking up: firms, GVCs, and productivity in Latin America," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 917-935, April.
    11. Carmen D. Álvarez‐Albelo & Antonio Manresa & Mònica Pigem‐Vigo, 2018. "Growing through trade in intermediate goods: the role of foreign growth and domestic tariffs," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(4), pages 414-436, September.
    12. Valeria Gattai & Piergiovanna Natale & Francesca Rossi, 2022. "Board Diversity and Outward FDI: Evidence from Europe," Working Papers 491, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2022.
    13. Qing Guo & Zishan Mai, 2022. "Do Chinese Photovoltaic Products Have Trade Potential in RCEP Countries? A BP Neural-Network-Improved Trade Gravity Model Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-20, December.
    14. Koji Shintaku, 2014. "The Division of Labor within Firms, Optimal Entry, and Firm Productivity," Discussion papers e-14-012, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
    15. Emil Kraft & Dogan Keles & Wolf Fichtner, 2020. "Modeling of frequency containment reserve prices with econometrics and artificial intelligence," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(8), pages 1179-1197, December.
    16. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Ramos-Herrera, María del Carmen, 2024. "Does international trade promote economic growth? Europe, 19th and 20th centuries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 561-575.
    17. Nathaniel P. S. Cook & Jason C. Jones, 2021. "The African Growth and Opportunity Act and growth in sub‐Saharan Africa: A local projection approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 234-261, January.
    18. Yu-Chun Lin & Yu-Hung Chang & Huang-Ting Yan, 2020. "Is trade a blessing or a curse? A panel data analysis of the determinants of depressive disorders," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 65(7), pages 1113-1121, September.
    19. Ernest Kay Bakpa & Hu Xuhua & Abigail Konadu Aboagye, 2021. "Ghana’s economic growth: Directing our focus on the contributing influences of innovation activities and trade," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 2213-2237, December.
    20. Koffi Dumor & Yao Li & Ma Yongkai & Enock Mintah Ampaw & Hafez Komla Dumor, 2022. "Evaluating the belt and road initiative effects on trade and migration: Evidence from the East African community," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(1), pages 16-28, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:45:y:2026:i:3:p:1177-1187. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.