IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/hlthec/v22y2013i12p1507-1514.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimal decision rules for HTA under uncertainty: a wider, dynamic perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Forster
  • Paolo Pertile

Abstract

We present a two‐period framework, which combines real option and decision‐theoretic approaches to health technology assessment under uncertainty. By viewing adoption, treatment and research decisions as a single economic project, we illustrate how their key dimensions affect optimal rules. We consider the results in relation to the existing literature and argue that developments in this direction could contribute substantially to efficiency gains in resource allocation. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Forster & Paolo Pertile, 2013. "Optimal decision rules for HTA under uncertainty: a wider, dynamic perspective," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(12), pages 1507-1514, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:22:y:2013:i:12:p:1507-1514
    DOI: 10.1002/hec.2893
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.2893
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/hec.2893?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roberts, Kevin & Weitzman, Martin L, 1981. "Funding Criteria for Research, Development, and Exploration Projects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(5), pages 1261-1288, September.
    2. Palmer, Stephen & Smith, Peter C., 2000. "Incorporating option values into the economic evaluation of health care technologies," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 755-766, September.
    3. McKenna, Claire & Chalabi, Zaid & Epstein, David & Claxton, Karl, 2010. "Budgetary policies and available actions: A generalisation of decision rules for allocation and research decisions," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 170-181, January.
    4. Claxton, K. & Thompson, K. M., 2001. "A dynamic programming approach to the efficient design of clinical trials," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 797-822, September.
    5. te Velde, Saskia J. & Lennert Veerman, J. & Tak, Nannah I. & Bosmans, Judith E. & Klepp, Knut-Inge & Brug, Johannes, 2011. "Modeling the long term health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of two interventions promoting fruit and vegetable intake among schoolchildren," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 14-22, January.
    6. Stephen E. Chick & Noah Gans, 2009. "Economic Analysis of Simulation Selection Problems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(3), pages 421-437, March.
    7. Claxton, Karl, 1999. "The irrelevance of inference: a decision-making approach to the stochastic evaluation of health care technologies," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 341-364, June.
    8. Meltzer, David O. & Smith, Peter C., 2011. "Theoretical Issues Relevant to the Economic Evaluation of Health Technologies," Handbook of Health Economics, in: Mark V. Pauly & Thomas G. Mcguire & Pedro P. Barros (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 433-469, Elsevier.
    9. Simon Eckermann & Andrew R. Willan, 2008. "The Option Value of Delay in Health Technology Assessment," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 28(3), pages 300-305, May.
    10. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    11. Stefano Conti & Karl Claxton, 2009. "Dimensions of Design Space: A Decision-Theoretic Approach to Optimal Research Design," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 29(6), pages 643-660, November.
    12. Paolo Pertile & Martin Forster & Davide La Torre, 2010. "Optimal sequential sampling rules for the economic evaluation of health technologies," Discussion Papers 10/24, Department of Economics, University of York.
    13. Susan C. Griffin & Karl P. Claxton & Stephen J. Palmer & Mark J. Sculpher, 2011. "Dangerous omissions: the consequences of ignoring decision uncertainty," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 212-224, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Daniele Bregantini & Jacco J.J. Thijssen, 2014. "On a simple quickest detection rule for health-care technology assessment," Discussion Papers 14/01, Department of Economics, University of York.
    2. Afschin Gandjour, 2015. "A model to optimize investments in health technologies, quality of care and research," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(20), pages 2031-2039, April.
    3. Thijssen, Jacco J.J. & Bregantini, Daniele, 2017. "Costly sequential experimentation and project valuation with an application to health technology assessment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 202-229.
    4. Daniele Bregantini, 2014. "Don’t Stop ’Til You Get Enough: a quickest detection approach to HTA," Discussion Papers 14/04, Department of Economics, University of York.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniele Bregantini, 2014. "Don’t Stop ’Til You Get Enough: a quickest detection approach to HTA," Discussion Papers 14/04, Department of Economics, University of York.
    2. Simon Walker & Mark Sculpher & Karl Claxton & Steve Palmer, 2012. "Coverage with evidence development, only in research, risk sharing or patient access scheme? A framework for coverage decisions," Working Papers 077cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
    3. Arthur E. Attema & Anna K. Lugnér & Talitha L. Feenstra, 2010. "Investment in antiviral drugs: a real options approach," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(10), pages 1240-1254, October.
    4. Claire McKenna & Karl Claxton, 2011. "Addressing Adoption and Research Design Decisions Simultaneously," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 31(6), pages 853-865, November.
    5. Stefano Conti & Karl Claxton, 2008. "Dimensions of design space: a decision-theoretic approach to optimal research design," Working Papers 038cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
    6. Penny Breeze & Alan Brennan, 2015. "Valuing Trial Designs from a Pharmaceutical Perspective Using Value‐Based Pricing," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(11), pages 1468-1482, November.
    7. Bognar, Katalin & Romley, John A. & Bae, Jay P. & Murray, James & Chou, Jacquelyn W. & Lakdawalla, Darius N., 2017. "The role of imperfect surrogate endpoint information in drug approval and reimbursement decisions," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-12.
    8. Karl Claxton & Stephen Palmer & Louise Longworth & Laura Bojke & Susan Griffin & Claire McKenna & Marta Soares & Eldon Spackman & Jihee Youn, 2011. "Uncertainty, evidence and irrecoverable costs: Informing approval, pricing and research decisions for health technologies," Working Papers 069cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
    9. Daniele Bregantini & Jacco J.J. Thijssen, 2014. "On a simple quickest detection rule for health-care technology assessment," Discussion Papers 14/01, Department of Economics, University of York.
    10. Andrew Willan & Simon Eckermann, 2012. "Value of Information and Pricing New Healthcare Interventions," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 30(6), pages 447-459, June.
    11. Andrew Willan, 2011. "Sample Size Determination for Cost-Effectiveness Trials," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 29(11), pages 933-949, November.
    12. Kort, Peter M. & Murto, Pauli & Pawlina, Grzegorz, 2010. "Uncertainty and stepwise investment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 196-203, April.
    13. Maiwenn Al, 2013. "Cost-Effectiveness Acceptability Curves Revisited," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 93-100, February.
    14. Cuypers, I.R.P., 2009. "Essays on equity joint ventures, uncertainty and experience," Other publications TiSEM 8dc79e86-c625-467f-a450-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Jeffrey J. Reuer & Tony W. Tong, 2007. "Corporate investments and growth options," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(8), pages 863-877.
    16. Viju, Crina & Kerr, William A., 2010. "Is The Subsidy For Biofuels The Way To Go?," 14th ICABR Conference, June 16-18, 2010, Ravello, Italy 188117, International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR).
    17. Panayi, Sylvia & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 1998. "Multi-stage Real Options: The Cases of Information Technology Infrastructure and International Bank Expansion," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 675-692.
    18. Szydlowski, Martin, 2019. "Incentives, project choice, and dynamic multitasking," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(3), July.
    19. Lensink, Robert & Sterken, Elmer, 2000. "Capital Market Imperfections, Uncertainty and Corporate Investment in the Czech Republic," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 33(1-2), pages 53-70.
    20. Samer A. Kharroubi & Alan Brennan & Mark Strong, 2011. "Estimating Expected Value of Sample Information for Incomplete Data Models Using Bayesian Approximation," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 31(6), pages 839-852, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:22:y:2013:i:12:p:1507-1514. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/5749 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.