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Judicial Disparity, Deviation, and Departures from Sentencing Guidelines: The Case of Hong Kong

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  • Kevin Kwok‐yin Cheng
  • Sayaka Ri
  • Natasha Pushkarna

Abstract

Analyzing sentencing disparity calls for more calibrated measures to capture the nuances of judicial discretion within jurisdictions that adopt strict sentencing guidelines. This article uses an unconventional outcome variable, percent deviation, to investigate guideline digressions in a nested, multilevel model. Percent deviation is calculated based on the difference between the guidelines’ “arithmetic starting point” and the actual starting point that a judge adopts. Two equations were used to measure percent deviation from the arithmetic starting point before and after adjustment for guilty plea sentence reductions. Extracting data on drug trafficking cases from an open‐source database from the Hong Kong Judiciary (n = 356), we illustrate how percent deviation can be employed as a measure of inter‐judge disparity using hierarchical linear models (HLMs). Our findings suggest that approximately 8 to 10 percent of the deviation in sentence length can be attributed to judges’ differential sentencing behaviors. The deviation is affected by case characteristics as well as judicial characteristics. Due to the wide guideline ranges, departures from said guidelines’ ranges are not common. This indicates that the guideline ranges mask the deviation and inter‐judge disparity that exist and recur.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Kwok‐yin Cheng & Sayaka Ri & Natasha Pushkarna, 2020. "Judicial Disparity, Deviation, and Departures from Sentencing Guidelines: The Case of Hong Kong," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(3), pages 580-614, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:empleg:v:17:y:2020:i:3:p:580-614
    DOI: 10.1111/jels.12260
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Julian V. Roberts & Ben Bradford, 2015. "Sentence Reductions for a Guilty Plea in England and Wales: Exploring New Empirical Trends," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), pages 187-210, June.
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    3. Griswold, David B., 1987. "Deviation from sentencing guidelines: The issue of unwarranted disparity," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 317-329.
    4. Shawn D. Bushway & Emily G. Owens & Anne Morrison Piehl, 2012. "Sentencing Guidelines and Judicial Discretion: Quasi‐Experimental Evidence from Human Calculation Errors," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(2), pages 291-319, June.
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    6. Mustard, David B, 2001. "Racial, Ethnic, and Gender Disparities in Sentencing: Evidence from the U.S. Federal Courts," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 285-314, April.
    7. Nutting Andrew W., 2017. "Preferences Toward Leniency under Mandatory Criminal Sentencing Guidelines: Role-in-the-Offense Adjustments for Federal Drug Trafficking Defendants," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-18, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cécile Bourreau-Dubois & Myriam Doriat-Duban & Bruno Jeandidier & Jean-Claude Ray, 2023. "Do child support guidelines result in lower inter-judge disparity? The case of the French advisory child support guidelines," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 87-116, February.
    2. Ri, Sayaka & Cheng, Kevin Kwok-yin, 2024. "Criminal record and sentencing: A comparative perspective between England and Wales and Hong Kong," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).

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