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Seeding a Simple Contagion

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  • Evan Sadler

Abstract

I propose a method for selecting seeds to maximize contagion. First, fit a random graph model using a coarse categorization of individuals. Next, compute a seed multiplier for each category—this is the average number of new infections a seed generates. Finally, seed the category with the highest multiplier. Relative to the most common methods, my approach requires far less granular data, and it consumes less computing power—the problem scales with the number of categories, not the number of individuals. I validate the methodology through simulations using real network data.

Suggested Citation

  • Evan Sadler, 2025. "Seeding a Simple Contagion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 93(1), pages 71-93, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:emetrp:v:93:y:2025:i:1:p:71-93
    DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22448
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Raghuram Iyengar & Christophe Van den Bulte & Thomas W. Valente, 2011. "Opinion Leadership and Social Contagion in New Product Diffusion," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(2), pages 195-212, 03-04.
    2. Abhijit Banerjee & Arun G Chandrasekhar & Esther Duflo & Matthew O Jackson, 2019. "Using Gossips to Spread Information: Theory and Evidence from Two Randomized Controlled Trials," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(6), pages 2453-2490.
    3. Timothée Tabouy & Pierre Barbillon & Julien Chiquet, 2020. "Variational Inference for Stochastic Block Models From Sampled Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 115(529), pages 455-466, January.
    4. Emily Breza & Arun G. Chandrasekhar & Tyler H. McCormick & Mengjie Pan, 2020. "Using Aggregated Relational Data to Feasibly Identify Network Structure without Network Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2454-2484, August.
    5. Alex Chin & Dean Eckles & Johan Ugander, 2022. "Evaluating Stochastic Seeding Strategies in Networks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(3), pages 1714-1736, March.
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