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Insider Trading, Stochastic Liquidity, and Equilibrium Prices

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  • Pierre Collin‐Dufresne
  • Vyacheslav Fos

Abstract

We extend Kyle's (1985) model of insider trading to the case where noise trading volatility follows a general stochastic process. We determine conditions under which, in equilibrium, price impact and price volatility are both stochastic, driven by shocks to uninformed volume even though the fundamental value is constant. The volatility of price volatility appears ‘excessive’ because insiders choose to trade more aggressively (and thus more information is revealed) when uninformed volume is higher and price impact is lower. This generates a positive relation between price volatility and trading volume, giving rise to an endogenous subordinate stochastic process for prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Collin‐Dufresne & Vyacheslav Fos, 2016. "Insider Trading, Stochastic Liquidity, and Equilibrium Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84(4), pages 1441-1475, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:emetrp:v:84:y:2016:i:4:p:1441-1475
    DOI: 10.3982/ECTA10789
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    4. Puru Gupta & Saul D. Jacka, 2023. "Portfolio Choice In Dynamic Thin Markets: Merton Meets Cournot," Papers 2309.16047, arXiv.org.
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    10. Peress, Joel & Schmidt, Daniel, 2021. "Noise traders incarnate: Describing a realistic noise trading process," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    11. Han, Jinhui & Li, Xiaolong & Ma, Guiyuan & Kennedy, Adrian Patrick, 2023. "Strategic trading with information acquisition and long-memory stochastic liquidity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 308(1), pages 480-495.
    12. Luke M. Bennett & Wei Hu, 2023. "Filtration enlargement‐based time series forecast in view of insider trading," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 112-140, February.
    13. Umut c{C}etin & Alaina Danilova, 2022. "Order routing and market quality: Who benefits from internalisation?," Papers 2212.07827, arXiv.org.
    14. Shangkun Deng & Chenguang Wang & Zhe Fu & Mingyue Wang, 2021. "An Intelligent System for Insider Trading Identification in Chinese Security Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(2), pages 593-616, February.
    15. Drummond, Philip A., 2023. "Market quality surrounding anticipated distraction events: Evidence from the FIFA World Cup," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    16. Park, Yang-Ho, 2022. "Informed trading in foreign exchange futures: Payroll news timing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    17. Cetin, Umut & Danilova, Albina, 2021. "On pricing rules and optimal strategies in general Kyle-Back models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113003, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Jin Hyuk Choi & Heeyoung Kwon & Kasper Larsen, 2022. "Trading constraints in continuous-time Kyle models," Papers 2206.08117, arXiv.org.
    19. Reda Chhaibi & Ibrahim Ekren & Eunjung Noh & Lu Vy, 2022. "A unified approach to informed trading via Monge-Kantorovich duality," Papers 2210.17384, arXiv.org.
    20. Ibrahim Ekren & Brad Mostowski & Gordan v{Z}itkovi'c, 2022. "Kyle's Model with Stochastic Liquidity," Papers 2204.11069, arXiv.org.
    21. Schroth, Enrique & Albuquerque, Rui & Fos, Vyacheslav, 2020. "Value creation in Shareholder Activism: A Structural Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 14995, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Christian Keller & Michael C. Tseng, 2023. "Arrow-Debreu Meets Kyle: Price Discovery for Derivatives," Papers 2302.13426, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    23. Albuquerque, Rui & Fos, Vyacheslav & Schroth, Enrique, 2022. "Value creation in shareholder activism," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 153-178.
    24. Contreras, Harold & Marcet, Francisco, 2021. "Sell-side analyst heterogeneity and insider trading," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    25. Umut c{C}et{i}n, 2018. "Mathematics of Market Microstructure under Asymmetric Information," Papers 1809.03885, arXiv.org.

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