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Price Volatility and Investor Behavior in an Overlapping Generations Model with Information Asymmetry

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  • MASAHIRO WATANABE

Abstract

This paper studies an overlapping generations model with multiple securities and heterogeneously informed agents. The model produces multiple equilibria, including highly volatile equilibria that can exhibit strong or weak correlations between asset returns-even when asset supplies and future dividends are uncorrelated across assets. Less informed agents rationally behave like trend-followers, while better informed agents follow contrarian strategies. Trading volume has a hump-shaped relation with information precision and is positively correlated with absolute price changes. Finally, accurate information increases the volatility and correlation of stock returns in the highly volatile, strongly correlated equilibrium. Copyright 2008 by The American Finance Association.

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  • Masahiro Watanabe, 2008. "Price Volatility and Investor Behavior in an Overlapping Generations Model with Information Asymmetry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 229-272, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:63:y:2008:i:1:p:229-272
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    Cited by:

    1. Albagli, Elias, 2015. "Investment horizons and asset prices under asymmetric information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 787-837.
    2. Elias Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2011. "A Theory of Asset Prices Based on Heterogeneous Information," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1827, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Rosen Valchev, 2017. "Dynamic Information Acquisition and Portfolio Bias," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 941, Boston College Department of Economics.
    4. Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Vyacheslav Fos, 2012. "Insider Trading, Stochastic Liquidity and Equilibrium Prices," NBER Working Papers 18451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Cespa, Giovanni & Vives, Xavier, 2011. "Expectations, Liquidity, and Short-term Trading," CEPR Discussion Papers 8303, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Sato, Yuki, 2016. "Delegated portfolio management, optimal fee contracts, and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 360-389.
    7. Stoyan V. Stoyanov & Yong Shin Kim & Svetlozar T. Rachev & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2017. "Option pricing for Informed Traders," Papers 1711.09445, arXiv.org.
    8. Xue-Zhong He & Lei Shi & Min Zheng, 2012. "Asset Pricing Under Keeping Up With the Joneses and Heterogeneous Beliefs," Research Paper Series 302, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    9. Yung-Ching Tseng & Wo-Chiang Lee, 2016. "Investor Sentiment and ETF Liquidity - Evidence from Asia Markets," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(1), pages 1-5.
    10. Giovanni Cespa & Xavier Vives, 2015. "The Beauty Contest and Short-Term Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 2099-2154, October.
    11. Shi, Lei, 2016. "Consumption-based CAPM with belief heterogeneity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 30-46.
    12. Pavan, Alessandro & Vives, Xavier, 2015. "Information, Coordination, and Market Frictions: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 407-426.
    13. Xue-Zhong He & Lei Shi, 2012. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," Research Paper Series 303, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    14. Ganguli, Jayant & Condie, Scott, 2012. "The pricing effects of ambiguous private information," Economics Discussion Papers 5631, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    15. Elias Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2014. "Dynamic Dispersed Information and the Credit Spread Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 19788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Lin, Tse-Chun & Lu, Xiaolong, 2015. "Why do options prices predict stock returns? Evidence from analyst tipping," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 17-28.
    17. Dutta, Sunil & Nezlobin, Alexander, 2017. "Information disclosure, firm growth, and the cost of capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 415-431.
    18. repec:esx:essedp:720 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Yun Wang & Renhai Hua & Zongcheng Zhang, 2011. "The investor behavior and futures market volatility: A theory and empirical study based on the OLG model and high-frequency data," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 1(4), pages 388-407, September.
    20. Andrei, Daniel & Cujean, Julien, 2017. "Information percolation, momentum and reversal," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 617-645.
    21. Elías Albagli, 2013. "Investment Horizons and Asset Prices under Asymmetric Information," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 709, Central Bank of Chile.
    22. He, Xue-Zhong & Shi, Lei, 2017. "Index portfolio and welfare analysis under heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 64-79.
    23. Makarov, Igor & Rytchkov, Oleg, 2012. "Forecasting the forecasts of others: Implications for asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 941-966.

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