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World agricultural baseline scenarios through 2050

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  • Ronald D. Sands
  • Shellye A. Suttles

Abstract

The European Green Deal aims to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050. The effort required to meet greenhouse gas emission targets or other sustainable development goals depends on the difference between baseline levels and policy targets. This paper provides a set of plausible world agricultural baseline scenarios through 2050 with a variety of agricultural indicators: food calories consumed, crop calories produced, average crop yields, and associated greenhouse gas emissions. Growth of agricultural activity varies widely across world regions, from Europe with a relatively stable population to sub‐Saharan Africa with rapidly growing populations and per‐capita incomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronald D. Sands & Shellye A. Suttles, 2022. "World agricultural baseline scenarios through 2050," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(4), pages 2034-2048, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:apecpp:v:44:y:2022:i:4:p:2034-2048
    DOI: 10.1002/aepp.13309
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    1. Nico Bauer & Steven K. Rose & Shinichiro Fujimori & Detlef P. Vuuren & John Weyant & Marshall Wise & Yiyun Cui & Vassilis Daioglou & Matthew J. Gidden & Etsushi Kato & Alban Kitous & Florian Leblanc &, 2020. "Global energy sector emission reductions and bioenergy use: overview of the bioenergy demand phase of the EMF-33 model comparison," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1553-1568, December.
    2. Chepeliev, Maksym, 2020. "Development of the Non-CO2 GHG Emissions Database for the GTAP Data Base Version 10A," GTAP Research Memoranda 5993, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
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