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How Government Reactions to Violence Worsen Social Welfare: Evidence from Peru

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  • Renard Sexton
  • Rachel L. Wellhausen
  • Michael G. Findley

Abstract

Dissident violence inflicts many costs on society, but some of the longest‐lasting consequences for civilians may be indirect, due to the government's response. We explore how government policy responses affect social welfare, specifically through budgetary shifts. Using subnational violence and budgeting data for Peru, we demonstrate that attacks on soldiers during the budget negotiation period drive a shift from local social services, especially health, to defense. One soldier fatality implies a 0.13 percentage point reduction in the local health budget share (2008–12). Health budget cuts due to a single soldier fatality result in 76 predicted additional infant deaths 2 years later. We show that the effect on health budgeting operates through decreases in women's use of health facilities and postnatal services. We offer evidence that Peru's coercive response indirectly harms civilians due to butter‐to‐guns budgetary shifts. Our results identify a budgetary mechanism that translates dissident violence into a deterioration in social welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Renard Sexton & Rachel L. Wellhausen & Michael G. Findley, 2019. "How Government Reactions to Violence Worsen Social Welfare: Evidence from Peru," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 63(2), pages 353-367, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:63:y:2019:i:2:p:353-367
    DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12415
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
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    1. Apoorva Lal & Mac Lockhart & Yiqing Xu & Ziwen Zu, 2023. "How Much Should We Trust Instrumental Variable Estimates in Political Science? Practical Advice Based on Over 60 Replicated Studies," Papers 2303.11399, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    2. Lorenzo Crippa & Laura Saavedra-Lux, 2023. "Double-edged sword: understanding the localized effect of foreign direct investment inflow in conflict settings," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2023-127, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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