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The Austrian Economy 2018 to 2022. Update of the Medium-term Forecast

Author

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  • Josef Baumgartner
  • Serguei Kaniovski

Abstract

Following the financial and economic crisis leading to the recession of 2008-09, and the sluggish economic activity between 2012 and 2015 (+0.7 percent p.a.), economic growth gained sustained momentum from mid-2016. For 2017 and 2018, WIFO expects annual GDP growth of 2.9 and 3.2 percent, respectively. An average annual increase of 2.1 percent is expected for the forecast period 2018 to 2022, up from a modest +1.3 percent p.a. recorded for 2013 to 2017. The expected rate would thereby exceed the euro area average by ¼ percentage point. The favourable external business environment will stimulate export growth (+4.1 percent p.a.) and encourage investment in new machinery and equipment. Rising disposable household income will allow private consumption to gain 1½ percent per year, after +0.7 percent p.a. in the previous five-year period. Buoyant growth in 2018 and 2019 will stimulate job creation beyond the increase in the labour force and lead to lower unemployment. However, from 2020 onwards, labour supply may again grow in excess of demand, with the unemployment rate edging up from 7.3 percent in 2019 to 7.6 percent in 2022. Inflation remains moderate over the medium term, and the inflation differential vis-à-vis the euro area average should narrow. The Consumer Price Index is expected to increase at an average 1.9 percent per year. Under our assumptions for future business conditions and policy settings, the general government account may reach balance as from the middle of the forecast period, both in headline (Maastricht) and structural terms. As a result, the ratio of government debt to nominal GDP would fall to around 63 percent by 2022, down by 20 percentage points from 2016.

Suggested Citation

  • Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski, 2018. "The Austrian Economy 2018 to 2022. Update of the Medium-term Forecast," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 23(6), pages 45-54, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wblltn:y:2018:i:6:p:45-54
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski & Hans Pitlik & Stefan Schiman, 2017. "Significantly Improved Growth Prospects. Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy until 2022," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 22(16), pages 155-172, December.
    2. Marcus Scheiblecker, 2017. "Strongest Economic Growth in Six Years. Economic Outlook for 2017 and 2018," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 22(12), pages 111-122, November.
    3. Stefan Ederer, 2018. "Österreichs Wirtschaft weiter auf Expansionskurs. Prognose für 2018 und 2019," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 91(4), pages 211-221, April.
    4. Stefan Ederer, 2018. "Österreichische Wirtschaft wächst kräftig. Prognose für 2017 bis 2019," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 91(1), pages 3-14, January.
    5. Stefan Ederer, 2018. "Strong Growth Prospects for Austria's Economy. Economic Outlook for 2017 to 2019," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 23(1), pages 1-12, January.
    6. Stefan Ederer, 2018. "Austria's Economy Stays on the Growth Path. Economic Outlook for 2018 and 2019," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 23(4), pages 27-37, April.
    7. Josef Baumgartner & Fritz Breuss & Serguei Kaniovski, 2004. "WIFO-Macromod. An Econometric Model of the Austrian Economy," WIFO Working Papers 241, WIFO.
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