IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/ijomae/v60y2024i4p272-284n1003.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What drives the profitability of banking sectors in the European Union? The machine learning approach

Author

Listed:
  • Bernardelli Michał

    (Department of Management, Economy and Finance, Bialystok University of Technology, Kleosin, Poland)

  • Korzeb Zbigniew

    (Collegium of Economic Analysis, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland)

  • Niedziółka Paweł

    (Collegium of Socio-Economics, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland)

Abstract

The study aims to establish patterns of relations between the profitability of the European Union (EU) banking sectors between 2007 and 2021 and sets of variables appropriate for clusters of countries into which the 27 countries of the EU are divided. The random forest method is deployed to identify the factors influencing the value of the return on equity. Shapley additive explanations are exploited to add interpretability to the results. The results show that the sets of variables shaping the profitability of banking sectors in the EU grouped by use of sovereign rating criterion are different. However, there are variables common to all banking sectors. These include cost efficiency and default risk. The study’s novelty lies in the reliance on a broad spectrum of explanatory variables assigned to three groups of factors, reference to all EU countries, and decomposition of the sample to identify similarities among the determinants of profitability.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernardelli Michał & Korzeb Zbigniew & Niedziółka Paweł, 2024. "What drives the profitability of banking sectors in the European Union? The machine learning approach," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 60(4), pages 272-284.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:ijomae:v:60:y:2024:i:4:p:272-284:n:1003
    DOI: 10.2478/ijme-2024-0022
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2478/ijme-2024-0022
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2478/ijme-2024-0022?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Muhammad Mushafiq & Syed Ahmad Sami & Muhammad Khalid Sohail & Muzammal Ilyas Sindhu, 2022. "Merton-type default risk and financial performance: the dynamic panel moderation of firm size," Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(2), pages 168-181, January.
    2. Habib-ur Rahman & Muhammad Waqas Yousaf & Nageena Tabassum, 2020. "Bank-Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Profitability: A Revisit of Pakistani Banking Sector under Dynamic Panel Data Approach," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-19, July.
    3. Caliskan, M. M. Tuncer & Kirer Silva Lecuna, Hale, 2020. "The Determinants of Banking Sector Profitability in Turkey," Business and Economics Research Journal, Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 11(1), pages 161-167, January.
    4. Tumpak Silalahi & Adler H.Manurung & Yuli Teguh Hidayat, 2015. "The Market Structure Of The Bank, Its Performance, And The Macroprudential Policy," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 18(1), pages 45-60, July.
    5. Hesna Genay & Rich Podjasek, 2014. "What Is the Impact of a Low Interest Rate Environment on Bank Profitability?," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jul.
    6. Maria Elisabete Neves & Catarina Proença & António Dias, 2020. "Bank Profitability and Efficiency in Portugal and Spain: A Non-Linearity Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, November.
    7. Nuraini Yuanita, 2019. "Competition and bank profitability," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, December.
    8. Asteriou, Dimitrios & Pilbeam, Keith & Tomuleasa, Iuliana, 2021. "The impact of corruption, economic freedom, regulation and transparency on bank profitability and bank stability: Evidence from the Eurozone area," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 150-177.
    9. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Nigar Bayramli & Nayef Al-Musehel, 2018. "Bank-Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Bank Profitability: Evidence from an Oil-Dependent Economy," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-21, September.
    10. Daniel Broby, 2021. "Financial technology and the future of banking," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, December.
    11. Emilia Bonaccorsi di Patti & Francesco Palazzo, 2020. "Bank profitability and macroeconomic conditions: Are business models different?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 49(2), July.
    12. Shoaib Khan, 2022. "Determinants of Banks Profitability: An Evidence from GCC Countries," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 11(3), pages 99-116.
    13. Neeraj Gupta & Jitendra Mahakud & David McMillan, 2020. "Ownership, bank size, capitalization and bank performance: Evidence from India," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1808282-180, January.
    14. Vera-Gilces, Paul & Camino-Mogro, Segundo & Ordeñana-Rodríguez, Xavier & Cornejo-Marcos, Gino, 2020. "A look inside banking profitability: Evidence from a dollarized emerging country," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 147-166.
    15. Dimakatso Sekwati & Mbulaheni Albert Dagume, 2023. "Effect of Unemployment and Inflation on Economic Growth in South Africa," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 35-45, January.
    16. Michal Bernardelli & Zbigniew Korzeb & Pawel Niedziolka, 2021. "The banking sector as the absorber of the COVID-19 crisis’ economic consequences: perception of WSE investors," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 335-374, June.
    17. Serhat Yüksel & Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Elvin Mammadov & Mustafa Özsarı, 2018. "Determinants of Profitability in the Banking Sector: An Analysis of Post-Soviet Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-15, July.
    18. Elekdag, Selim & Malik, Sheheryar & Mitra, Srobona, 2020. "Breaking the Bank? A Probabilistic Assessment of Euro Area Bank Profitability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    19. Hidaya Othmani, 2022. "Foreign institutional ownership and bank performance: Evidence from Tunisia," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(1), pages 42-53, March.
    20. Jan Keil, 2017. "Explaining the Concentration-Profitability Paradox," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 209-231, April.
    21. Korzeb, Zbigniew & Niedziółka, Paweł & Nistor, Simona, 2023. "Sovereign creditworthiness and bank foreign ownership. An empirical investigation of the European banking sector," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Olga Miroshnichenko & Elena Iakovleva & Natalia Voronova, 2022. "Banking Sector Profitability: Does Household Income Matter?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-19, March.
    2. Goodhope Hance Mkaro & Lin Sea Lau & Chee Keong Choong, 2023. "The determinants of banking sector performance in Tanzania: A pre-post Treasury Single Account analysis," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 2282812-228, October.
    3. Md Saimum Hossain & Faruque Ahamed, 2021. "Comprehensive Analysis On Determinants Of Bank Profitability In Bangladesh," Papers 2105.14198, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2021.
    4. mohammed, habib, 2023. "Modeling Determinants of Private Banks Profitability in Ethiopia," MPRA Paper 116699, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Vijay Kumar & Sanjeev Acharya & Ly T. H. Ho, 2020. "Does Monetary Policy Influence the Profitability of Banks in New Zealand?," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-17, June.
    6. Marwan Al-Zoubi & Mais Sha’ban, 2023. "Bank performance, capital and size: a comparative analysis in MENA and EU," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 13(3), pages 677-702, December.
    7. Taslima Akther & Mushfiqur Rahman & Md. Mufidur Rahman, 2023. "Factors influencing commercial bank profitability in Bangladesh: a panel data approach," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20, December.
    8. Bruno de Menna, 2021. "Monetary Policy, Credit Risk, and Profitability: The Influence of Relationship Lending on Cooperative Banks' Performance," Working Papers hal-03138738, HAL.
    9. Addai, Bismark & Tang, Wenjin & Gyimah, Adjei Gyamfi & Twumasi, Martinson Ankrah, 2022. "Income diversification and bank performance nexus: Does corruption matter?," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    10. Nimrod Segev & Sigal Ribon & Michael Kahn & Jakob Haan, 2024. "Low Interest Rates and Banks’ Interest Margins: Does Deposit Market Concentration Matter?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 65(2), pages 189-218, June.
    11. Bashir Ahmad & Maria Ciupac-Ulici & Daniela-Georgeta Beju, 2021. "Economic and Non-Economic Variables Affecting Fraud in European Countries," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-17, June.
    12. Stefan Kerbl & Boris Simunovic & Andreas Wolf, 2019. "Quantifying interest rate risk and the effect of model assumptions behind sight deposits," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 37, pages 73-85.
    13. Emmanuel Chuke Nwude & Musa Sani Zakirai & Comfort Amaka Nwude, 2023. "Ownership Structure and Bank Performance in Emerging Market Economy: Evidence From Nigerian Listed Deposit Money Banks," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, December.
    14. David Perea-Khalifi & Ana I. Irimia-Diéguez & Pedro Palos-Sánchez, 2024. "Exploring the determinants of the user experience in P2P payment systems in Spain: a text mining approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, December.
    15. François-Éric Racicot & Raymond Théoret, 2022. "Tracking market and non-traditional sources of risks in procyclical and countercyclical hedge fund strategies under extreme scenarios: a nonlinear VAR approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-56, December.
    16. Olszak, Małgorzata & Kowalska, Iwona, 2023. "Do competition and market structure affect sensitivity of bank profitability to the business cycle?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    17. Simone Rossi & Mariarosa Borroni & Andrea Lippi & Mariacristina Piva, 2018. "Determinants of Bank Profitability in the Euro Area: What Has Changed During the Recent Financial Crisis?," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(5), pages 18-27, May.
    18. Rongwu Zhang & Wenqiang Fu & Yingxu Kuang, 2022. "Can Digital Economy Promote Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction in Heavily Polluting Enterprises? Empirical Evidence from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-21, August.
    19. Mercè Sala‐Ríos, 2024. "What are the determinants affecting cooperatives’ profitability? Evidence from Spain," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(1), pages 85-111, March.
    20. Abuzayed, Bana & Ben Ammar, Mouldi & Molyneux, Philip & Al-Fayoumi, Nedal, 2024. "Corruption, lending and bank performance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 802-830.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking sector; machine learning; profitability; random forest; SHAP;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • Z10 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:ijomae:v:60:y:2024:i:4:p:272-284:n:1003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sgh.waw.pl/kgs/en .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.