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Long-Term Economic and Geopolitical Cycles: A Compass to Multilateral Cooperation in Our Age

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  • Matolcsy György H

    (Governor of the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB), the Central Bank of Hungary)

Abstract

The birth of modern economics was strongly related to the study of cycles. Economists tried to establish historical cycles, then business cycles and to model even very short-term fluctuations. In the 2000s, the “great moderation” brought about a temporary decline in the interest for longer-term cyclical issues. This was also related to the unipolar moment of US power after the fall of the Soviet Union. The 2008 great financial crisis and the rise of China, however, proved that cycles had not ceased to affect us. The contrary is true: just now, we are witnessing (at least) a rerun of the 1970s with all the implications of energy shocks and geopolitical tensions. Several authors again try to understand cycles; nevertheless, there is a scarcity of studies merging cultural, economic and geopolitical knowledge in this regard. The paper aims to fill this gap by discussing possible interpretations of the current great power dynamics. A complex analysis shows that downward spirals of hegemonic cycles can be escaped. Eurasia as a deep-rooted concept can further catalyse global development and the much-needed cooperative policies towards long-term sustainable growth. The East and the West should be focused on benchmarking the best solutions in the fields of technology, money and the green transition so that a fusion of megatrends benefits each community.

Suggested Citation

Handle: RePEc:vrs:ecdipl:v:1:y:2023:i:1:p:7-15:n:1005
DOI: 10.2478/ecdip-2023-0005
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References listed on IDEAS

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  1. Kevin Stiroh, 1999. "Is There a New Economy?," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 82-101, July.
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  3. Lucas Bernard & Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan & Thomas I. Palley & Willi Semmler, 2014. "Time scales and mechanisms of economic cycles: a review of theories of long waves," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 87-107, January.
  4. Friedrich Lucke, 2022. "The Great Moderation and the Financial Cycle," Working Papers REM 2022/0238, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
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Keywords

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JEL classification:

  • A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
  • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
  • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
  • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
  • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
  • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development

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