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Turnover in the AFDC Population: An Event History Analysis

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  • Robert Plotnick

Abstract

The control group of families with female heads, from the Denver Income Maintenance Experiment, is utilized in this analysis of AFDC turnover. This study uses event history techniques, a methodology that is more appropriate for exploring welfare dynamics than the logit approach of earlier work. Increases in age and the wage have significant, negative effects on the rate of entering AFDC. A higher guarantee raises this rate significantly. Age and the guarantee have significant effects, with opposite signs, on the exit rate. Other variables are not systematically related to turnover. The estimates are applied to projected changes in lengths of time spent on and off AFDC and in AFDC caseloads due to changes in the explanatory variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Plotnick, 1983. "Turnover in the AFDC Population: An Event History Analysis," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 18(1), pages 65-81.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:18:y:1983:i:1:p:65-81
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeff Grogger & Stephen G. Bronars, 2001. "The Effect of Welfare Payments on the Marriage and Fertility Behavior of Unwed Mothers: Results from a Twins Experiment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(3), pages 529-545, June.
    2. Sheena McConnell & Lucia Nixon, "undated". "Reaching the Working Poor and the Poor Elderly: Report on Literature Review and Data Analyses," Mathematica Policy Research Reports b003482dbdec4519b7ebf5d9e, Mathematica Policy Research.
    3. Jorgen Hansen & Magnus Lofstrom, 2009. "The dynamics of immigrant welfare and labor market behavior," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 22(4), pages 941-970, October.
    4. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Serrano-Padial, Ricardo, 2010. "Labor market flexibility and poverty dynamics," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 632-642, August.
    5. Timothy M. Smeeding, 2018. "The PSID in Research and Policy," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 680(1), pages 29-47, November.
    6. R. L. Hanson & J. T. Hartman, "undated". "Do welfare magnets attract?," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1028-94, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    7. Marieka Klawitter & Robert D. Plotnick & Mark Evan Edwards, 2000. "Determinants of initial entry onto welfare by young women," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(4), pages 527-546.
    8. Samantha Luks & Henry E. Brady, 2003. "Defining Welfare Spells," Evaluation Review, , vol. 27(4), pages 395-420, August.
    9. Brown, Timothy Tyler, 2009. "Rational praying: The economics of prayer," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 37-44, January.
    10. Shao-Hsun Keng & Steven B. Garasky & Helen H. Jensen, 2000. "Welfare Dependence, Recidivism, and the Future for Recipients of Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF)," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 00-wp242, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    11. Ziliak, Stephen T., 1997. "Kicking the Malthusian vice: Lessons from the abolition of "welfare" in the late nineteenth century," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 449-468.
    12. Mairead Reidy & Lucy Mackey-Bilaver & Robert M. Goerge & Yizu Yeh & Bong Joo Lee, 1998. "The Dynamics of AFDC, Medicaid, and Food Stamps: A Preliminary Report," JCPR Working Papers 48, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
    13. Aaron S. Yelowitz, 1998. "Will Extending Medicaid to Two-Parent Families Encourage Marriage?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(4), pages 833-865.
    14. R. Plotnick & M. Klawitter & M. Edwards, "undated". "Do Attitudes and Personality Characteristics Affect Socioeconomic Outcomes? The Case of Welfare Use by Young Women," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1161-98, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    15. M. Klawitter & R. Plotnick & M. Edwards, "undated". "Determinants of welfare entry and exit by young women," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1099-96, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    16. Erin Leahey, 2001. "A Help or a Hindrance?," Evaluation Review, , vol. 25(1), pages 29-54, February.

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