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How Dark Is The Night: The Consumers� Mood Coping With The Crisis. Evidences From Isae Consumer Survey

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  • Stefania GABRIELE
  • Bianca Maria MARTELLI
  • Michele RAITANO

Abstract

Since 2008 the global economy, following also the financial crisis, is facing a severe decline in economic activity and the economic estimates concerning the first quarter 2009 are even worse. The Italian Consumers Confidence Indicators (CCI), however, after a sharp fall beginning in 2007, is unexpectedly showing some signals of recovery since the end of summer 2008. It seems that the effects of the financial crisis have not influenced Italian consumers yet, as it is documented worldwide. It is worth sorting out this puzzle. The paper tries to explain these trends starting from the role played by the single elements on which the composite indicator of confidence climate is determined. Then the recent price evolution and its influence on the Italian Consumer Confidence dynamics are investigated. Since end of summer 2008, the sharp inflation slowdown together with nominal wages increase, may have contributed to keep confidence from falling. A further tool for explaining recent CCI dynamics could also be represented by a microdata analysis of opinions of population sub-groups, because some of these could have been more exposed than others to the crisis. Therefore the paper explores reactions of different consumers segments (e.g. by income, professional status, household composition).

Suggested Citation

  • Stefania GABRIELE & Bianca Maria MARTELLI & Michele RAITANO, 2009. "How Dark Is The Night: The Consumers� Mood Coping With The Crisis. Evidences From Isae Consumer Survey," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(3(9)_Fall).
  • Handle: RePEc:ush:jaessh:v:4:y:2009:i:3(9)_fall2009:73
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marco Malgarini & Patrizia Margani, 2007. "Psychology, consumer sentiment and household expenditures," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(13), pages 1719-1729.
    2. Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2005. "Le famiglie italiane e l'introduzione dell'euro: storia di uno shock annunciato," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 201-226.
    3. Parigi, Giuseppe & Schlitzer, Giuseppe, 1997. "Predicting consumption of Italian households by means of survey indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 197-209, June.
    4. Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1992. "Earnings uncertainty and precautionary saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 307-337, November.
    5. Christopher D. Carroll & Miles S. Kimball, 2006. "Precautionary Saving and Precautionary Wealth," Economics Working Paper Archive 530, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    6. Flora Fullone & Bianca Maria Martelli, 2008. "Re-thinking the ISAE Consumer Survey Processing Procedure," ISAE Working Papers 92, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
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    Keywords

    consumers confidence; consumption; survey data;

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