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Le « modèle » allemand de croissance par les exportations est-il généralisable aux autres pays européens ?

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  • Eric Rugraff

    (Université de Strasbourg (BETA))

Abstract

Au cours de ces dix dernières années l’Allemagne a accumulé un excédent commercial de plus de 1 500 milliards d’euros. Cet excédent est le reflet d’une « hyper-compétitivité » internationale fondée d’une part, et cela depuis le début des années 1950, sur sa compétitivité hors-prix, et d’autre part, depuis une dizaine d’année, sur une compétitivité-coût. Cette nouvelle compétitivité-coût résulte d’une grande modération salariale en Allemagne liée aux réformes du marché du travail des années 2000 et à la localisation depuis le milieu des années 1990, en Europe centrale, d’une part croissante des processus productifs (notamment dans le secteur automobile) qui sont ensuite réimportés sous forme de consommation intermédiaire en Allemagne. Cet article montre que ce « modèle » allemand ne doit pas être exporté vers les autres pays de l’UE : il risquerait, d’une part, de conduire les pays européens à jouer « un jeu de la demande » à somme négative qui déboucherait sur une explosion de la précarisation du travail, et d’autre part, à une détérioration de l’image de marque des produits européens, qui pousserait le reste du monde à s’en détourner.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Rugraff, 2012. "Le « modèle » allemand de croissance par les exportations est-il généralisable aux autres pays européens ?," Bulletin de l'Observatoire des politiques économiques en Europe, Observatoire des Politiques Économiques en Europe (OPEE), vol. 27(1), pages 27-32, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ulp:buopee:v:27:y:2012:m:12:i:6
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    File URL: https://opee.unistra.fr/Le-modele-allemand-de-croissance
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Angela Cheptea & Lionel Fontagné & Soledad Zignago, 2014. "European export performance," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(1), pages 25-58, February.
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    1. Eric Rugraff, 2013. "La Commission européenne est-elle responsable des excédents commerciaux allemands ?," Bulletin de l'Observatoire des politiques économiques en Europe, Observatoire des Politiques Économiques en Europe (OPEE), vol. 29(1), pages 25-28, December.
    2. repec:ulp:buopee:v:29:y:2013:m:12:i:5 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Eric Rugraff, 2014. "La Commission européenne est-elle responsable des excédents commerciaux allemands ?," Post-Print hal-04031333, HAL.

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