Computing turning point monthly probability of the Argentinian economy according to the leading index: 1973 - 2000
Two indicators of the Argentinean economic cycle prove to be useful for economic forecasts, the leading and coincident indexes. The former points out the level of economic activity monthly. The latter anticipates the future direction of the economy. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the monthly peak and trough probabilities, in the business and growth cycles using the Neftci’s sequential probability recursion. We first determine the probability density function that best adjusts to the observed frequency of the monthly leading index rate of change. The results obtained by the probabilities are evaluated in each case.
Volume (Year): 27 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 Year 2000 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.econ.uchile.cl/|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, Enero.
- Zarnowitz, Victor & Moore, Geoffrey H, 1982. "Sequential Signals of Recession and Recovery," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(1), pages 57-85, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:udc:esteco:v:27:y:2000:i:2:p:279-295. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Verónica Kunze)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.