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Computing turning point monthly probability of the Argentinian economy according to the leading index: 1973 - 2000

  • Juan Mario Jorrat
  • Ana María Cerro

    ()

Two indicators of the Argentinean economic cycle prove to be useful for economic forecasts, the leading and coincident indexes. The former points out the level of economic activity monthly. The latter anticipates the future direction of the economy. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the monthly peak and trough probabilities, in the business and growth cycles using the Neftci’s sequential probability recursion. We first determine the probability density function that best adjusts to the observed frequency of the monthly leading index rate of change. The results obtained by the probabilities are evaluated in each case.

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File URL: http://www.econ.uchile.cl/uploads/publicacion/03113aa8-8328-4d87-b816-1eb556c7e556.pdf
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Article provided by University of Chile, Department of Economics in its journal Estudios de Economia.

Volume (Year): 27 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 Year 2000 (December)
Pages: 279-295

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Handle: RePEc:udc:esteco:v:27:y:2000:i:2:p:279-295
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  1. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, October.
  2. Zarnowitz, Victor & Moore, Geoffrey H, 1982. "Sequential Signals of Recession and Recovery," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(1), pages 57-85, January.
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