IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tpr/restat/v91y2009i3p490-502.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Welfare Reform, Returns to Experience, and Wages: Using Reservation Wages to Account for Sample Selection Bias

Author

Listed:
  • Jeffrey Grogger

    (Harris School, University of Chicago)

Abstract

One rationale for work-focused welfare reform was human capital theory: work today should raise experience tomorrow, which should raise future wage offers and reduce welfare dependency. Yet few studies have estimated the effect of welfare reform on wages. I approach the problem using a novel sample selection estimator based on reservation wage data. Reservation wages solve the selection problem using bivariate censored regression methods without the need for exclusion restrictions. Whereas OLS and conventional sample selection estimates suggest that reform had little effect on wages, the reservation-wage-adjusted estimates suggest that Florida's welfare reform experiment raised wages by about 4%. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey Grogger, 2009. "Welfare Reform, Returns to Experience, and Wages: Using Reservation Wages to Account for Sample Selection Bias," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 490-502, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:91:y:2009:i:3:p:490-502
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/rest.91.3.490
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James J. Heckman, 1976. "The Common Structure of Statistical Models of Truncation, Sample Selection and Limited Dependent Variables and a Simple Estimator for Such Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 475-492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. David Card & Charles Michalopoulos & Philip K. Robins, 2001. "The Limits to Wage Growth: Measuring the Growth Rate of Wages For Recent Welfare Leavers," NBER Working Papers 8444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Hurd, Michael D, 1999. "Anchoring and Acquiescence Bias in Measuring Assets in Household Surveys," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 19(1-3), pages 111-136, December.
    4. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    5. Newey, Whitney K., 1987. "Efficient estimation of limited dependent variable models with endogenous explanatory variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 231-250, November.
    6. David Card & Dean R. Hyslop, 2005. "Estimating the Effects of a Time-Limited Earnings Subsidy for Welfare-Leavers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(6), pages 1723-1770, November.
    7. Light, Audrey & Ureta, Manuelita, 1995. "Early-Career Work Experience and Gender Wage Differentials," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(1), pages 121-154, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cockx, Bart & Robin, Stéphane R. & Goebel, Christian, 2006. "Income Support Policies for Part-Time Workers: A Stepping-Stone to Regular Jobs? An Application to Young Long-Term Unemployed Women in Belgium," IZA Discussion Papers 2432, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. B. Cockx & C. Goebel & S. Robin, 2009. "Is income support for part-time workers a steppingstone to regular jobs? An application to young long-term unemployed women," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 09/561, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. Rothstein, Jesse & von Wachter, Till, 2016. "Social Experiments in the Labor Market," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt6605k20b, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    4. Jeffrey Zabel & Saul Schwartz & Stephen Donald, 2013. "An analysis of the impact of the self-sufficiency project on wages," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 231-259, February.
    5. Gunderson, Jill Marie & Hotchkiss, Julie L., 2007. "Job Separation Behavior of WOTC Workers: Results from a Unique Case Study," MPRA Paper 44801, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Greenberg, David H. & Robins, Philip K., 2008. "Incorporating nonmarket time into benefit-cost analyses of social programs: An application to the self-sufficiency project," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3-4), pages 766-794, April.
    7. Darrell J. Glaser & Ahmed S. Rahman, 2017. "Development and Retention of Human Capital in Large Bureaucracies," Departmental Working Papers 60, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    8. Bart Cockx & Christian Goebel & Stéphane Robin, 2013. "Can income support for part-time workers serve as a stepping-stone to regular jobs? An application to young long-term unemployed women," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 189-229, February.
    9. Jill Fitzpatrick & Julie L. Hotchkiss, 2009. "Job Separation Outcomes Of Welfare Hires: Insight From Linked Personnel And State Administrative Data," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(2), pages 137-146, April.
    10. Elira Kuka & Na'ama Shenhav, 2020. "Long-Run Effects of Incentivizing Work After Childbirth," NBER Working Papers 27444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. repec:ces:ifodic:v:3:y:2005:i:2:p:14567644 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. David Neumark & Brian Asquith & Brittany Bass, 2020. "Longer‐Run Effects Of Anti‐Poverty Policies On Disadvantaged Neighborhoods," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(3), pages 409-434, July.
    13. Jeffrey Grogger & Lynn A. Karoly, 2005. "Welfare Reform, Work and Wages: A Summary of the US Experience," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 3(02), pages 08-12, July.
    14. Hansen Jorgen, 2007. "Human Capital and Welfare Dynamics in Canada," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-29, June.
    15. Neumark, David & Shirley, Peter, 2020. "The Long-Run Effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit on Women's Labor Market Outcomes," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    16. Michael Carlos Best & Henrik Jacobsen Jacobsen, 2013. "Optimal Income Taxation with Career Effects of Work Effort," Working Papers 2013-9, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    17. Glaser, Darrell & Rahman, Ahmed, 2015. "Human Capital on the High Seas - Job Mobility and Returns to Technical Skill During Industrialization," MPRA Paper 68351, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Jill Marie Gunderson & Julie L. Hotchkiss, 2006. "Welfare recipiency, job separation outcomes, and postseparation earnings: insight from linked personnel and state administrative data," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    19. Netta Achdut & Miri Endeweld, 2021. "Employment And Earnings Mobility Among Income Support Recipients, 2005–2015," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 19(1), pages 31-57.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Glaser, Darrell & Rahman, Ahmed, 2015. "Human Capital on the High Seas - Job Mobility and Returns to Technical Skill During Industrialization," MPRA Paper 68351, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Faouzi Sboui, 2006. "Le dualisme du marché du travail en Tunisie : choix occupationnel et écart salarial," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 174(3), pages 21-37.
    3. Fortin, Nicole & Lemieux, Thomas & Firpo, Sergio, 2011. "Decomposition Methods in Economics," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 1, pages 1-102, Elsevier.
    4. Sandra Müllbacher & Wolfgang Nagl, 2017. "Labour supply in Austria: an assessment of recent developments and the effects of a tax reform," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(3), pages 465-486, August.
    5. Miyoshi, Koyo, 2008. "Male-female wage differentials in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 479-496, December.
    6. Fernando Rios-Avila & Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza, 2018. "Standard-error correction in two-stage optimization models: A quasi–maximum likelihood estimation approach," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 18(1), pages 206-222, March.
    7. Hans A. Holter & Dirk Krueger & Serhiy Stepanchuk, 2019. "How do tax progressivity and household heterogeneity affect Laffer curves?," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(4), pages 1317-1356, November.
    8. Chen, Yuanyuan & Feng, Shuaizhang & Han, Yujie, 2020. "The effect of primary school type on the high school opportunities of migrant children in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 325-338.
    9. Bettina Peters & Rebecca Riley & Iulia Siedschlag & Priit Vahter & John McQuinn, 2014. "Innovation and Productivity in Services: Evidence from Germany, Ireland and the United Kingdom," JRC Working Papers on Corporate R&D and Innovation 2014-04, Joint Research Centre.
    10. Asaduzzaman, M. & Anik, Asif Reza, 2017. "Determinants of Adoption of Rice Yield Gap Minimisation Technology in Bangladesh," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 40(1-2), pages 73-96, March-Jun.
    11. Fernandes, Marcelo & Mergulhão, João, 2016. "Anticipatory effects in the FTSE 100 index revisions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 79-90.
    12. Thomas B. King, 2008. "Discipline and Liquidity in the Interbank Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2‐3), pages 295-317, March.
    13. Renuka Sane & Susan Thomas, 2020. "From Participation To Repurchase: Low Income Households And Micro‐insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 87(3), pages 783-814, September.
    14. Michael Ziegelmeyer & Julius Nick, 2013. "Backing out of private pension provision: lessons from Germany," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 505-539, August.
    15. Yuen Leng Chow & Isa E. Hafalir & Abdullah Yavas, 2015. "Auction versus Negotiated Sale: Evidence from Real Estate Sales," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(2), pages 432-470, June.
    16. Francesco Gangi & Mario Mustilli & Nicola Varrone & Lucia Michela Daniele, 2018. "Corporate Social Responsibility and Banks’ Financial Performance," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(10), pages 42-58, October.
    17. Xavier Ramos Morilla & Josep Lluís Raymond Bara & Josep Oliver Alonso, 1999. "Not All University Degrees Yield the Same Return: Private and Social Returns to Higher Education for Males in Spain," Working Papers wpdea9904, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    18. Richard Blundell & Monica Costa Dias & Costas Meghir & Jonathan Shaw, 2016. "Female Labor Supply, Human Capital, and Welfare Reform," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1705-1753, September.
    19. P.W. Miller & S. Rummery, 1989. "Gender Wage Discrimination in Australia: A reassessment," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 89-21, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    20. Giovanna Culot & Matteo Podrecca & Guido Nassimbeni & Guido Orzes & Marco Sartor, 2023. "Using supply chain databases in academic research: A methodological critique," Journal of Supply Chain Management, Institute for Supply Management, vol. 59(1), pages 3-25, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:91:y:2009:i:3:p:490-502. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kelly McDougall (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://direct.mit.edu/journals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.