IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/quantf/v8y2008i3p235-249.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Price discovery in the presence of boundedly rational agents

Author

Listed:
  • Karl Ludwig Keiber

Abstract

In this paper we propose a sequential model of security trading which, compared to existing models, is extended along the notions of (Simon, H.A., A behavioral model of rational choice. Quart. J. Econ., 1955, 64, 99-118; Rubinstein, A., Modeling Bounded Rationality, Zeuthen Lecture Book Series, 1998 (MIT Press: Cambridge, MA), and Odean, T., Do investors trade too much? Am. Econ. Rev., 1999, 89(5), 1279-1298) by adding boundedly rational traders. Our results indicate that both momentum and mean-reversion in asset prices can be attributed to the presence of agents who are subject to systematic errors in the process of forecasting the liquidation value of a risky security. The length of the momentum period is inversely related to both the amount of information-based trading in the market and the rate at which asset specific information is learned by boundedly rational agents. Furthermore, the model allows explicitly to establish a link between the component of the bid-ask spread that can be explained by bounded rationality and both momentum and reversal.

Suggested Citation

  • Karl Ludwig Keiber, 2008. "Price discovery in the presence of boundedly rational agents," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 235-249.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:8:y:2008:i:3:p:235-249
    DOI: 10.1080/14697680601158692
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14697680601158692
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/14697680601158692?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 265-295, February.
    2. Terrance Odean., 1996. "Volume, Volatility, Price and Profit When All Trader Are Above Average," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-266, University of California at Berkeley.
    3. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
    4. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1839-1885, December.
    5. Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
    6. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1987. "Price, trade size, and information in securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 69-90, September.
    7. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1987. "Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 277-311, June.
    8. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. "Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
    9. Fama, Eugene F., 1998. "Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 283-306, September.
    10. G. Caginalp & D. Balenovich, 1994. "Market oscillations induced by the competition between value-based and trend-based investment strategies," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 129-164.
    11. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
    12. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
    13. Aumann, Robert J., 1997. "Rationality and Bounded Rationality," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 2-14, October.
    14. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
    15. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1991. "Order Form and Information in Securities Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 905-927, July.
    16. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December.
    17. Terrance Odean, 1998. "Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When All Traders Are Above Average," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1887-1934, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Kangil & Han, Taek-Whan, 2016. "How vulnerable is the emissions market to transaction costs?: An ABMS Approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 273-286.
    2. Samuel E. Vazquez, 2009. "Scale Invariance, Bounded Rationality and Non-Equilibrium Economics," Papers 0902.3840, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baker, Malcolm & Stein, Jeremy C., 2004. "Market liquidity as a sentiment indicator," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 271-299, June.
    2. Chuang, Wen-I & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2006. "An empirical evaluation of the overconfidence hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 2489-2515, September.
    3. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    4. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    5. Hur, Jungshik & Singh, Vivek, 2019. "How do disposition effect and anchoring bias interact to impact momentum in stock returns?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 238-256.
    6. Stavros Degiannakis & George Giannopoulos, 2009. "Is PEAD a consequence of the presence of the cognitive bias of self-attribution in investors' expectations regarding permanent earnings? Evidence from Athens Stock Exchange," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 89-110.
    7. Maria Pacurar, 2008. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models In Finance: A Survey Of The Theoretical And Empirical Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 711-751, September.
    8. Lei, Qin & Wu, Guojun, 2005. "Time-varying informed and uninformed trading activities," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 153-181, May.
    9. Liu, Hongqi & Peng, Cameron & Xiong, Wei A. & Xiong, Wei, 2022. "Taming the bias zoo," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 716-741.
    10. Handa, Puneet & Schwartz, Robert & Tiwari, Ashish, 2003. "Quote setting and price formation in an order driven market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 461-489, August.
    11. Ramzi Boussaidi, 2022. "Implications of the overconfidence bias in presence of private information: Evidence from MENA stock markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3660-3678, July.
    12. Liu, Hongqi & Peng, Cameron & Wei, Xiong & Wei, Xiong, 2022. "Taming the bias zoo," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 109301, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Kakhbod, Ali & Song, Fei, 2020. "Dynamic price discovery: Transparency vs. information design," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 203-232.
    14. Edmonds, Christopher T. & Edmonds, Jennifer E. & Fu, Richard & Jenkins, David S., 2018. "Price momentum and the premium for meeting or beating analysts' forecasts of earnings," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 34-47.
    15. Banerjee, Snehal & Green, Brett, 2015. "Signal or noise? Uncertainty and learning about whether other traders are informed," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 398-423.
    16. Ko, K. Jeremy & (James) Huang, Zhijian, 2007. "Arrogance can be a virtue: Overconfidence, information acquisition, and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 529-560, May.
    17. Ferguson, Colin & Finn, Frank & Hall, Jason & Pinnuck, Matt, 2010. "Speculation and e-commerce: The long and the short of IT," International Journal of Accounting Information Systems, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 79-104.
    18. Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "Return–volume nexus in financial markets: A survey of research," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    19. Doukas, John A. & Kim, Chansog & Pantzalis, Christos, 2006. "Divergence of opinion and equity returns under different states of earnings expectations," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 310-331, August.
    20. Mamdouh Medhat & Maik Schmeling, 2022. "Short-term Momentum," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 1480-1526.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:8:y:2008:i:3:p:235-249. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RQUF20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.