IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/jriskr/v12y2009i2p209-222.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The role of individual personality type in subjective risk elicitation outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Zhijun Yang
  • K. H. Coble
  • M. Darren Hudson

Abstract

Managing uncertainty is an unavoidable challenge in a variety of decision contexts. On many occasions, objective data are not available, necessitating the use of experts. However, research into procedures to elicit and aggregate information from experts is difficult to validate or test empirically. A controlled economic experiment was used to assess subjective probability elicitation accuracy resulting from three alternative elicitation procedures and two aggregation alternatives. The empirical results provide evidence of the impacts of elicitation techniques, distribution type, and personal characteristics such as risk preferences and personality type on subjective risk assessment accuracy. Our conclusion is that experimental approaches hold promise as a technique to assess the forecast accuracy of aggregated subjective probabilities in a variety of contexts.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhijun Yang & K. H. Coble & M. Darren Hudson, 2009. "The role of individual personality type in subjective risk elicitation outcomes," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 209-222, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jriskr:v:12:y:2009:i:2:p:209-222
    DOI: 10.1080/13669870802488990
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13669870802488990
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/13669870802488990?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ouchi, Fumika, 2004. "A literature review on the use of expert opinion in probabilistic risk analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3201, The World Bank.
    2. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2002. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1644-1655, December.
    3. Daniel Kahneman & Dan Lovallo, 1993. "Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(1), pages 17-31, January.
    4. Bruno Chauvin & Danièle Hermand & Etienne Mullet, 2007. "Risk Perception and Personality Facets," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(1), pages 171-185, February.
    5. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-1151, September.
    6. Stuart Mestelman & David Feeny, 1988. "Does ideology matter?: Anecdotal experimental evidence on the voluntary provision of public goods," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 281-286, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Bell & Rozlyn Engel & Darren Hudson & Julian Jamison & William Skimmyhorn, 2018. "Risk preferences in future military leaders," Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics (SABE), vol. 2(2), pages 11-24, September.
    2. Keith Coble & Zhijun Yang & M. Darren Hudson, 2011. "Using experimental economics to evaluate alternative subjective elicitation procedures," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(14), pages 1729-1736.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Halim, Edward & Riyanto, Yohanes Eko & Roy, Nilanjan, 2016. "Price Dynamics and Consumption Smoothing in Experimental Asset Markets," MPRA Paper 71631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ciril Bosch-Rosa & Thomas Meissner & Antoni Bosch-Domènech, 2018. "Cognitive bubbles," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 21(1), pages 132-153, March.
    3. Christoph Huber & Christian König-Kersting, 2022. "Experimenting with Financial Professionals," Working Papers 2022-07, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    4. Nathalie Colombier & Laurent Denant Boemont & Youenn Loheac & David Masclet, 2008. "Risk aversion: an experiment with self-employed workers and salaried workers," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(10), pages 791-795.
    5. Simon Cornée & David Masclet & Gervais Thenet, 2012. "Credit Relationships: Evidence from Experiments with Real Bankers," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(5), pages 957-980, August.
    6. Stephen Cheung & Stefan Palan, 2012. "Two heads are less bubbly than one: team decision-making in an experimental asset market," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 15(3), pages 373-397, September.
    7. K.S. Muehlfeld & G.U. Weitzel & A. van Witteloostuijn, 2012. "Fight or freeze? Individual differences in investors’ motivational systems and trading in experimental asset markets," Working Papers 12-18, Utrecht School of Economics.
    8. Shaun P. Hargreaves Heap & Daniel John Zizzo, 2011. "Emotions and Chat in a Financial Markets Experiment," Working Paper Series 10, The Paul Woolley Centre for Capital Market Dysfunctionality, University of Technology, Sydney.
    9. Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2022. "Forecasting Skills in Experimental Markets: Illusion or Reality?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(7), pages 5216-5232, July.
    10. Rocco Caferra & Andrea Morone & Piergiuseppe Morone & Paolo Storelli, 2022. "Professional traders’ individual and social preferences under risk: Does group's wealth matter?," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(4), pages 1063-1082, December.
    11. Te Bao & Edward Halim & Charles N. Noussair & Yohanes E. Riyanto, 2021. "Managerial incentives and stock price dynamics: an experimental approach," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(2), pages 617-648, June.
    12. Dariel, Aurelie & Riedl, Arno & Siegenthaler, Simon, 2021. "Referral hiring and wage formation in a market with adverse selection," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 109-130.
    13. John Duffy & Janet Hua Jiang & Huan Xie, 2021. "Pricing Indefinitely Lived Assets: Experimental Evidence," CIRANO Working Papers 2021s-32, CIRANO.
    14. Keith Coble & Zhijun Yang & M. Darren Hudson, 2011. "Using experimental economics to evaluate alternative subjective elicitation procedures," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(14), pages 1729-1736.
    15. Asako, Yasushi & Funaki, Yukihiko & Ueda, Kozo & Uto, Nobuyuki, 2020. "(A)symmetric information bubbles: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    16. Lorko, Matej & Servátka, Maroš & Zhang, Le, 2019. "How to Improve the Accuracy of Project Schedules? The Effect of Project Specification and Historical Information on Duration Estimates," MPRA Paper 95585, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Brice Corgnet & Camille Cornand & Nobuyuki Hanaki, 2020. "Negative Tail Events, Emotions & Risk Taking," Working Papers 2016, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    18. Edward Halim & Yohanes E. Riyanto & Nilanjan Roy, 2019. "Costly Information Acquisition, Social Networks, and Asset Prices: Experimental Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(4), pages 1975-2010, August.
    19. Veronica Rappoport & Enrichetta Ravina & Daniel Paravisini, 2010. "Risk Aversion and Wealth: Evidence from Person-to-Person Lending Portfolios," 2010 Meeting Papers 664, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Laura Schechter, 2007. "Risk aversion and expected-utility theory: A calibration exercise," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 67-76, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:jriskr:v:12:y:2009:i:2:p:209-222. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RJRR20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.