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The role of individual personality type in subjective risk elicitation outcomes

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  • Zhijun Yang
  • K. H. Coble
  • M. Darren Hudson

Abstract

Managing uncertainty is an unavoidable challenge in a variety of decision contexts. On many occasions, objective data are not available, necessitating the use of experts. However, research into procedures to elicit and aggregate information from experts is difficult to validate or test empirically. A controlled economic experiment was used to assess subjective probability elicitation accuracy resulting from three alternative elicitation procedures and two aggregation alternatives. The empirical results provide evidence of the impacts of elicitation techniques, distribution type, and personal characteristics such as risk preferences and personality type on subjective risk assessment accuracy. Our conclusion is that experimental approaches hold promise as a technique to assess the forecast accuracy of aggregated subjective probabilities in a variety of contexts.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhijun Yang & K. H. Coble & M. Darren Hudson, 2009. "The role of individual personality type in subjective risk elicitation outcomes," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 209-222, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jriskr:v:12:y:2009:i:2:p:209-222
    DOI: 10.1080/13669870802488990
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Bell & Rozlyn Engel & Darren Hudson & Julian Jamison & William Skimmyhorn, 2018. "Risk preferences in future military leaders," Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics (SABE), vol. 2(2), pages 11-24, September.
    2. Keith Coble & Zhijun Yang & M. Darren Hudson, 2011. "Using experimental economics to evaluate alternative subjective elicitation procedures," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(14), pages 1729-1736.

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