Nonlinear Return Dependence in Major Real Estate Markets
The major contribution of this paper is to recognize the possible presence of nonlinear return dependence in six major real estate markets (the US, UK, Japan, Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore) as well the resulting implications on return predictability and market interdependence. We employ the Brock, Derchert & Scheinkman (BDS) test and a nonlinear logistic model to analyse the temporal variation of securitized and hedged market returns in these markets using unconditional and conditional risk‐return specifications. Our results do not imply conclusively the existence of deterministic nonlinear return behaviour in these markets but are consistent with its existence in some cases. Further evidence of varying levels of market co‐movement among the major real estate markets as well as with the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) world stock market is documented for these series after accounting for the deterministic nonlinearities in self returns. The analyses also suggest a need to account for nonlinear behaviour in forecasting models in order to obtain potentially more accurate real estate return forecasts. Finally, global investors need to be more cautious in formulating their portfolio diversification strategies since gains from diversification may diminish in the long run if real estate markets are in fact nonlinear in an international environment.
Volume (Year): 25 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RJPR20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RJPR20|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mei, Jianping & Hu, Jiawei, 2000. "Conditional Risk Premiums of Asian Real Estate Stocks," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 297-313, November.
- Kim Hiang Liow, 2006. "The Dynamics of Return Volatilty and Systematic Risk in International Real Estate Security Markets," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 1-29, November.
- Bierens, H.J., 1995.
"Nonparametric cointegration analysis,"
1995-123, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Okunev, John & Wilson, Patrick & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2000. "The Causal Relationship between Real Estate and Stock Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 251-61, November.
- Antonios Antoniou & Nuray Ergul & Phil Holmes, 1997. "Market Efficiency, Thin Trading and Non-linear Behaviour: Evidence from an Emerging Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 3(2), pages 175-190.
- David Michayluk & Patrick J. Wilson & Ralf Zurbruegg, 2006. "Asymmetric Volatility, Correlation and Returns Dynamics Between the U.S. and U.K. Securitized Real Estate Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 109-131, 03.
- David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo, 1999. "The Integration of Commercial Real Estate Markets and Stock Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(3), pages 483-515.
- Ling, David C & Naranjo, Andy, 2002. "Commercial Real Estate Return Performance: A Cross-Country Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-42, Jan.-Marc.
- Kim Liow & Haishan Yang, 2005. "Long-Term Co-Memories and Short-Run Adjustment: Securitized Real Estate and Stock Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 283-300, November.
- Xiao-Ming Li, 2006. "A Revisit Of International Stock Market Linkages: New Evidence From Rank Tests For Nonlinear Cointegration," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 53(2), pages 174-197, 05.
- Brent W. Ambrose & Esther Ancel & Mark D. Griffiths, 1992. "The Fractal Structure of Real Estate Investment Trust Returns: The Search for Evidence of Market Segmentation and Nonlinear Dependency," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-54.
- Graham Newell & Maurice Peat & Max Stevenson, 1996. "Testing for Evidence of Nonlinear Structure in Australian Real Estate Market Returns," Working Paper Series 61, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Jarl G. Kallberg & Crocker H. Liu & Paolo Pasquariello, 2002. "Regime Shifts in Asian Equity and Real Estate Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(2), pages 263-291.
- Breitung, Jorg, 2002. "Nonparametric tests for unit roots and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 343-363, June.
- Hsieh, David A, 1991. " Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1839-77, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:jpropr:v:25:y:2008:i:4:p:285-319. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.