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AdaptSPEC: Adaptive Spectral Estimation for Nonstationary Time Series

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  • Ori Rosen
  • Sally Wood
  • David S. Stoffer

Abstract

We propose a method for analyzing possibly nonstationary time series by adaptively dividing the time series into an unknown but finite number of segments and estimating the corresponding local spectra by smoothing splines. The model is formulated in a Bayesian framework, and the estimation relies on reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) methods. For a given segmentation of the time series, the likelihood function is approximated via a product of local Whittle likelihoods. Thus, no parametric assumption is made about the process underlying the time series. The number and lengths of the segments are assumed unknown and may change from one MCMC iteration to another. The frequentist properties of the method are investigated by simulation, and applications to electroencephalogram and the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon are described in detail.

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  • Ori Rosen & Sally Wood & David S. Stoffer, 2012. "AdaptSPEC: Adaptive Spectral Estimation for Nonstationary Time Series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 107(500), pages 1575-1589, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlasa:v:107:y:2012:i:500:p:1575-1589
    DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2012.716340
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Raquel Prado & Gabriel Huerta, 2002. "Time‐varying autoregressions with model order uncertainty," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 599-618, September.
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    4. Sally A. Wood, 2002. "Bayesian mixture of splines for spatially adaptive nonparametric regression," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(3), pages 513-528, August.
    5. Rosen, Ori & Stoffer, David S. & Wood, Sally, 2009. "Local Spectral Analysis via a Bayesian Mixture of Smoothing Splines," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(485), pages 249-262.
    6. Ombao H. C & Raz J. A & von Sachs R. & Malow B. A, 2001. "Automatic Statistical Analysis of Bivariate Nonstationary Time Series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 543-560, June.
    7. Guo, Wensheng & Dai, Ming & Ombao, Hernando C. & von Sachs, Rainer, 2003. "Smoothing Spline ANOVA for Time-Dependent Spectral Analysis," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 643-652, January.
    8. Lau, John W. & So, Mike K.P., 2008. "Bayesian mixture of autoregressive models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 38-60, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. von Sachs, Rainer, 2019. "Spectral Analysis of Multivariate Time Series," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2019008, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    2. Hu, Zhixiong & Prado, Raquel, 2023. "Fast Bayesian inference on spectral analysis of multivariate stationary time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    3. Robert T. Krafty & Ori Rosen & David S. Stoffer & Daniel J. Buysse & Martica H. Hall, 2017. "Conditional Spectral Analysis of Replicated Multiple Time Series With Application to Nocturnal Physiology," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(520), pages 1405-1416, October.
    4. Granados-Garcia, Guilllermo & Fiecas, Mark & Babak, Shahbaba & Fortin, Norbert J. & Ombao, Hernando, 2022. "Brain waves analysis via a non-parametric Bayesian mixture of autoregressive kernels," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    5. Proietti, Tommaso & Luati, Alessandra, 2013. "The Exponential Model for the Spectrum of a Time Series: Extensions and Applications," MPRA Paper 45280, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Yakun Wang & Zeda Li & Scott A. Bruce, 2023. "Adaptive Bayesian sum of trees model for covariate‐dependent spectral analysis," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 1826-1839, September.
    7. Patricio Maturana-Russel & Renate Meyer, 2021. "Bayesian spectral density estimation using P-splines with quantile-based knot placement," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 2055-2077, September.
    8. Shibin Zhang, 2022. "Automatic estimation of spatial spectra via smoothing splines," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 565-590, April.
    9. Scott A. Bruce & Martica H. Hall & Daniel J. Buysse & Robert T. Krafty, 2018. "Conditional adaptive Bayesian spectral analysis of nonstationary biomedical time series," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 74(1), pages 260-269, March.
    10. Mark Fiecas & Hernando Ombao, 2016. "Modeling the Evolution of Dynamic Brain Processes During an Associative Learning Experiment," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(516), pages 1440-1453, October.
    11. Dai, Ning & Jones, Galin L. & Fiecas, Mark, 2020. "Bayesian longitudinal spectral estimation with application to resting-state fMRI data analysis," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 104-116.
    12. Zhang, Shibin, 2019. "Bayesian copula spectral analysis for stationary time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 166-179.
    13. Zhang, Shibin, 2016. "Adaptive spectral estimation for nonstationary multivariate time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 330-349.
    14. Nick James, 2021. "Evolutionary correlation, regime switching, spectral dynamics and optimal trading strategies for cryptocurrencies and equities," Papers 2112.15321, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    15. Zhang, Shibin, 2020. "Nonparametric Bayesian inference for the spectral density based on irregularly spaced data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

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