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Extreme value and cluster analysis of European daily temperature series

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  • Manuel G. Scotto
  • Susana M. Barbosa
  • Andrés M. Alonso

Abstract

Time series of daily mean temperature obtained from the European Climate Assessment data set is analyzed with respect to their extremal properties. A time-series clustering approach which combines Bayesian methodology, extreme value theory and classification techniques is adopted for the analysis of the regional variability of temperature extremes. The daily mean temperature records are clustered on the basis of their corresponding predictive distributions for 25-, 50- and 100-year return values. The results of the cluster analysis show a clear distinction between the highest altitude stations, for which the return values are lowest, and the remaining stations. Furthermore, a clear distinction is also found between the northernmost stations in Scandinavia and the stations in central and southern Europe. This spatial structure of the return period distributions for 25-, 50- and 100-years seems to be consistent with projected changes in the variability of temperature extremes over Europe pointing to a different behavior in central Europe than in northern Europe and the Mediterranean area, possibly related to the effect of soil moisture and land-atmosphere coupling.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel G. Scotto & Susana M. Barbosa & Andrés M. Alonso, 2011. "Extreme value and cluster analysis of European daily temperature series," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(12), pages 2793-2804, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:38:y:2011:i:12:p:2793-2804
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2011.570317
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Garcia-Aristizabal & Edoardo Bucchignani & Elisa Palazzi & Donatella D’Onofrio & Paolo Gasparini & Warner Marzocchi, 2015. "Analysis of non-stationary climate-related extreme events considering climate change scenarios: an application for multi-hazard assessment in the Dar es Salaam region, Tanzania," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(1), pages 289-320, January.

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