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Dynamic Modelling of the Current Accounts: Evidence from the Caribbean

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  • Roland Craigwell
  • Sudesh Samaroo

Abstract

This paper uses time series and pooled data to estimate the current account function of a non-oil developing country (Barbados) and an oil dependent economy (Trinidad and Tobago). The pooled data reveals that the terms of trade (TOT), the government variable (BSGDP), foreign incomes (FGDP), the prime rate and long term capital flows (LTKGDP) are significant variables. The cointegration-error correction model suggests that in Trinidad and Tobago, the exchange rate, BSGDP and FGDP are important explanatory variables; for Barbados, TOT and the BSGDP ratio are influential in the long-run while the latter ratio and LTKGDP are important short run regressors. [F10, F11]

Suggested Citation

  • Roland Craigwell & Sudesh Samaroo, 1997. "Dynamic Modelling of the Current Accounts: Evidence from the Caribbean," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 39-50.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:11:y:1997:i:4:p:39-50
    DOI: 10.1080/10168739700000025
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pastor, Manuel Jr., 1989. "Current account deficits and debt accumulation in Latin America: Debate and evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 77-97, July.
    2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    3. Backus, David K., 1993. "Interpreting comovements in the trade balance and the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3-4), pages 375-387, May.
    4. Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-277, August.
    5. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    6. Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982. "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October.
    7. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    9. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aggarwal, Raj & Simmons, Walter, 2006. "Eonomic integration among caribbean countries: Evidence from purchasing power parity, 1980-2000," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 277-280, April.
    2. Aggarwal, Raj & Simmons, Walter, 2008. "Common stocastic trends among Caribbean currencies: Evidence from Guyana, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 277-289.

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