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Long-horizon consumption risk and the cross-section of returns: new tests and international evidence

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  • Joachim Grammig
  • Andreas Schrimpf
  • Michael Schuppli

Abstract

This paper investigates whether measuring consumption risk over long horizons can improve the empirical performance of the consumption-based capital asset pricing model (CCAPM) for size and value premia in international stock markets (USA, UK, and Germany). In order to account for commonalities in size and book-to-market sorted portfolios, we also include industry portfolios in our set of test assets. Our results show that, contrary to the findings of Parker and Julliard [2005. Consumption risk and the cross- section of expected returns. Journal of Political Economy 113, no. 1: 185-222], the model falls short of providing an accurate description of the cross-section of returns under our modified empirical approach. At the same time, however, measuring consumption risk over longer horizons typically yields lower risk-aversion estimates. Thus, our results suggest that more plausible parameter estimates - as opposed to lower pricing errors - can be regarded as the main achievement of the long-horizon CCAPM.

Suggested Citation

  • Joachim Grammig & Andreas Schrimpf & Michael Schuppli, 2009. "Long-horizon consumption risk and the cross-section of returns: new tests and international evidence," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5-6), pages 511-532.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:15:y:2009:i:5-6:p:511-532
    DOI: 10.1080/13518470902872285
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ravi Bansal, 2007. "Long-run risks and financial markets," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Jul), pages 283-300.
    2. Adam Szeidl & Raj Chetty, 2005. "Consumption Commitments: Neoclassical Foundations for Habit Formation," 2005 Meeting Papers 122, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Auer Benjamin R., 2012. "Lassen sich CAPM, HCAPM und CCAPM durch konsumbasierte zeitvariable Parameterspezifikation rehabilitieren? / Can Time-varying Parameter Specification Based on Consumption Variables Rehabilitate CAPM, ," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(5), pages 518-544, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumption-based asset pricing; long-run consumption risk; value puzzle; international stock markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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