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Multivariate Return Decomposition: Theory and Implications

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  • Stanislav Anatolyev
  • Nikolay Gospodinov

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a model based on multivariate decomposition of multiplicative – absolute values and signs – components of asset returns. In the m-variate case, the marginals for the m absolute values and the binary marginals for the m directions are linked through a 2m-dimensional copula. The approach is detailed in the case of a bivariate decomposition. We outline the construction of the likelihood function and the computation of different conditional measures. The finite-sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimator are assessed by simulation. An application to predicting bond returns illustrates the usefulness of the proposed method.

Suggested Citation

  • Stanislav Anatolyev & Nikolay Gospodinov, 2019. "Multivariate Return Decomposition: Theory and Implications," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 487-508, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:38:y:2019:i:5:p:487-508
    DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2017.1348677
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    Cited by:

    1. Stanislav Anatolyev, 2021. "Directional news impact curve," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 94-107, January.
    2. Nikolay Gospodinov, 2017. "Asset Co-movements: Features and Challenges," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2017-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Chen, Nan-Kuang & Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chou, Yu-Hsi, 2017. "Further evidence on bear market predictability: The role of the external finance premium," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-121.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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