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Multivariate return decomposition: theory and implications

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  • Stanislav Anatolyev
  • Nikolay Gospodinov

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a model based on multivariate decomposition of multiplicative?absolute values and signs?components of several returns. In the m-variate case, the marginals for the m absolute values and the binary marginals for the m directions are linked through a 2m-dimensional copula. The approach is detailed in the case of a bivariate decomposition. We outline the construction of the likelihood function and the computation of different conditional measures. The finite-sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimator are assessed by simulation. An application to predicting bond returns illustrates the usefulness of the proposed method.

Suggested Citation

  • Stanislav Anatolyev & Nikolay Gospodinov, 2015. "Multivariate return decomposition: theory and implications," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2015-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2015-07
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, December.
    2. Fabrizio Cipollini & Robert F. Engle & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2007. "A Model for Multivariate Non-negative Valued Processes in Financial Econometrics," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2007_16, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    3. Scott Joslin & Marcel Priebsch & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2014. "Risk Premiums in Dynamic Term Structure Models with Unspanned Macro Risks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(3), pages 1197-1233, June.
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    5. Chernov, Mikhail & Mueller, Philippe, 2012. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 367-394.
    6. Nyberg, Henri, 2014. "A Bivariate Autoregressive Probit Model: Business Cycle Linkages And Transmission Of Recession Probabilities," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 838-862, June.
    7. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2009. "Macro Factors in Bond Risk Premia," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5027-5067, December.
    8. Anna Cieslak & Pavol Povala, 2015. "Expected Returns in Treasury Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(10), pages 2859-2901.
    9. Anatolyev, Stanislav & Gospodinov, Nikolay, 2010. "Modeling Financial Return Dynamics via Decomposition," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(2), pages 232-245.
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    11. Anatolyev Stanislav, 2009. "Multi-Market Direction-of-Change Modeling Using Dependence Ratios," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24, March.
    12. G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), 2013. "Handbook of Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stanislav Anatolyev, 2021. "Directional news impact curve," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 94-107, January.
    2. Nikolay Gospodinov, 2017. "Asset Co-movements: Features and Challenges," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2017-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Chen, Nan-Kuang & Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chou, Yu-Hsi, 2017. "Further evidence on bear market predictability: The role of the external finance premium," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-121.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    multivariate decomposition; multiplicative components; volatility and direction models; copula; dependence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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