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Sequential Decision-making in Interdependent Sectors with Multiobjective Inoperability Decision Trees: Application to Biofuel Subsidy Analysis

  • Joost Santos
  • Kash Barker
  • Paul Zelinke
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    Decision-making involving large-scale systems often involves considerations for temporal changes, interdependencies in organizational structures, multiple competing objectives, and risk and uncertainty, among others. In this paper we develop a risk-based methodology, the Multiobjective Inoperability Decision Tree (MOIDT). It integrates several dimensions of decision-making processes associated with interconnected systems in terms of: (i) evaluation of sequential policies; (ii) analysis of interdependencies; (iii) treatment of multiple objectives and their tradeoffs; and (iv) characterization of uncertainties. To demonstrate the integration of these four components, we present a case study to analyze the impact of government policies towards mass-scale biofuel production. Using a multi-period decision framework, the analysis utilizes economic input-output data to model the probabilistic demand adjustments for sectors that will likely be affected by biofuel policies.

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    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Economic Systems Research.

    Volume (Year): 20 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 29-56

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:20:y:2008:i:1:p:29-56
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