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The contribution of weather variability to economic sectors

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  • Miia Parnaudeau
  • Jean-Louis Bertrand

Abstract

Every day, people make economic decisions based on the weather, affecting sales of companies in a wide range of economic sectors. In many cases, the impact of weather on sales is not constant from one season to the next. Yet, the existing research to estimate the influence of temperature on annual sales has not analysed the relationship per season, resulting in potential washout effects and underestimated weather impacts. Drawing upon French economic sectors for empirical evidence, we break down the analysis of the relationship between weather and monthly sales by season. Our methodology provides the cumulative annual contribution of weather to sales and allows deriving the maximum potential annual impact of adverse weather. With our results, analysts and risk managers can better understand the exposure to abnormal weather and consider the potential benefits of mitigating weather risk using the weather parameters we identify to structure bespoke index-based financial instruments.

Suggested Citation

  • Miia Parnaudeau & Jean-Louis Bertrand, 2018. "The contribution of weather variability to economic sectors," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(43), pages 4632-4649, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:50:y:2018:i:43:p:4632-4649
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2018.1458200
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    Cited by:

    1. Sarkar, P. & Wahab, M.I.M. & Fang, L., 2023. "Weather rebate contracts for different risk attitudes of supply chain members," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 311(1), pages 139-153.
    2. Brigitte Roth Tran, 2022. "Sellin' in the Rain: Weather, Climate, and Retail Sales," Working Paper Series 2022-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Jean-Louis Bertrand & Xavier Brusset, 2018. "Managing the financial consequences of weather variability," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(5), pages 301-315, September.
    4. Bertrand, Jean-Louis & Brusset, Xavier & Chabot, Miia, 2021. "Protecting franchise chains against weather risk: A design science approach," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 187-200.
    5. Stanko Dimitrov & Régis Y. Chenavaz & Octavio Escobar, 2023. "Accounting for Climate When Determining the Impact of Weather on Retail Sales," Businesses, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-18, September.

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