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The dynamics of job creation and destruction for university graduates: why a rising unemployment rate can be misleading

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  • Ana Rute Cardoso
  • Priscila Ferreira

Abstract

A large matched employer-employee data set on the Portuguese economy is used to analyse gross job creation and job destruction for university graduates, compared to other groups of workers. Standard measures of gross job flows are computed, and variance decomposition is used to check whether idiosyncratic shocks or aggregate and sectoral shocks can account for the time variation in gross job flows, for schooling groups separately. Results indicate that the market for university graduates has expanded much more than that for undergraduates, and that idiosyncratic shocks are more relevant driving job flows for university graduates than for nongraduates. No support is therefore found for the pessimistic view that states that the expansion of higher education may have gone too far.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana Rute Cardoso & Priscila Ferreira, 2009. "The dynamics of job creation and destruction for university graduates: why a rising unemployment rate can be misleading," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(19), pages 2513-2521.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:41:y:2009:i:19:p:2513-2521
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840802293339
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    Cited by:

    1. Pinto, Ligia M. & Harrison, Glenn W., 2003. "Multilateral negotiations over climate change policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 911-930, December.
    2. Anabela Botelho & Ligia Costa Pinto, 2002. "Hypothetical, real, and predicted real willingness to pay in open-ended surveys: experimental results," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(15), pages 993-996.
    3. Aslan Zorlu & Joop Hartog, 2005. "The effect of immigration on wages in three european countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(1), pages 113-151, December.
    4. Heshmati, Almas, 2007. "Labor Market Policy Options of the Kurdistan Regional Government," IZA Discussion Papers 3247, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Pedro Portugal & Ana Rute Cardoso, 2001. "Disentangling the minimum wage puzzle: an analysis of job accessions and separations from a longitudinal matched employer- employee data set," NIMA Working Papers 9, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    6. Paulo Guimarães, 2002. "The state of Portuguese research in economics: an analysis based on publications in international journals," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 1(1), pages 3-25, March.
    7. Anabela Botelho & Lígia Costa Pinto & Miguel Portela & Antonio Silva, 2001. "The determinants of success in university entrance," NIMA Working Papers 13, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    8. Anabela Botelho, 2001. "Strategic behavior at trial-The production, reporting, and evaluation of complex evidence," NIMA Working Papers 14, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    9. Joao Cerejeira da Silva, 2002. "Identification of the Portuguese industrial districts," NIMA Working Papers 17, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

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