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Hypothetical, real, and predicted real willingness to pay in open-ended surveys: experimental results

Author

Listed:
  • Anabela Botelho
  • Ligia Costa Pinto

Abstract

This study reports the results of experiments designed to elicit, within a controlled laboratory environment, hypothetical and real willingness to pay for an environmental educational programme using the open-ended question format. By maintaining both the good and the question format constant across the treatments, the experiments overcome the shortcomings of recently reported experimental results, providing a clean test for hypothetical bias in open-ended valuations. Having found a statistically significant difference between the hypothetical and real values, the question of whether hypothetical valuations may nonetheless provide useful statistical information concerning individuals' real valuations is turned to. This question, which is perhaps the key question in the current state of the debate surrounding the contingent valuation method, is answered affirmatively in this study.

Suggested Citation

  • Anabela Botelho & Ligia Costa Pinto, 2002. "Hypothetical, real, and predicted real willingness to pay in open-ended surveys: experimental results," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(15), pages 993-996.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:9:y:2002:i:15:p:993-996
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850210148143
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    Cited by:

    1. Murat Isik, 2006. "An experimental analysis of impacts of uncertainty and irreversibility on willingness-to-pay," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 67-72.
    2. Cho, Seong-Hoon & Yen, Steven T. & Bowker, J.M. & Newman, David H., 2008. "Modeling Willingness to Pay for Land Conservation Easements: Treatment of Zero and Protest Bids and Application and Policy Implications," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 267-285, April.
    3. Wehrle, Rebecca & Wiens, Marcus & Schultmann, Frank, 2024. "Evaluation of the potential of infrastructure funds: The case of inland waterways in Germany," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    4. Pallab Mozumder & Robert P. Berrens, 2007. "Investigating hypothetical bias: induced-value tests of the referendum voting mechanism with uncertainty," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(10), pages 705-709.
    5. Zuzanna Klos-Adamkiewicz, 2024. "Willingness to Pay for Ecological Public Transport- Theoretical Approach," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special B), pages 738-749.
    6. James Murphy & P. Allen & Thomas Stevens & Darryl Weatherhead, 2005. "A Meta-analysis of Hypothetical Bias in Stated Preference Valuation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 30(3), pages 313-325, March.
    7. Kanya, Lucy & Sanghera, Sabina & Lewin, Alex & Fox-Rushby, Julia, 2019. "The criterion validity of willingness to pay methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis of the evidence," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 238-261.
    8. Michael Takudzwa Pasara & Nigel Nyajeka & Steven Henry Dunga, 2023. "Enhancing Foreign Currency Allocation for Private Sector Development – Case of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Forex Auction System," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 11(2), pages 72-89.
    9. Maria Forlicz & Tomasz Rolczynski, 2020. "Relationship Between Personal Debt Arrears and Risk Attitude– Cross Country Evidence," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 586-599.
    10. Kanya, Lucy & Saghera, Sabina & Lewin, Alex & Fox-Rushby, Julia, 2019. "The criterion validity of willingness to pay methods: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the evidence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100741, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2004:i:6:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Lin Lin & David L. Ortega & Jiayu Sun, 2025. "The effectiveness of misinformation corrective strategies and implications for consumers' food preferences and policy attitudes," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(1), pages 217-240, March.
    13. Botelho, Anabela & Pinto, Ligia Costa, 2004. "Students' expectations of the economic returns to college education: results of a controlled experiment," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 645-653, December.
    14. Collins, Alan R. & Rosenberger, Randall S., 2007. "Protest Adjustments in the Valuation of Watershed Restoration Using Payment Card Data," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 36(2), pages 1-15, October.
    15. Tobias-Mamina, Rejoice & Jordaan, Yolanda & Lin, Lin & Ortega, David L., 2025. "The Effects of Information and Naming Restriction on South African Consumer Preferences for Farm-raised Meat and Meat Alternatives," 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO 360835, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. J. D. Snowball & K. G. Willis, 2011. "Interview versus self-completion questionnaires in discrete choice experiments," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(16), pages 1521-1525.
    17. Joseph Little & Robert Berrens, 2004. "Explaining Disparities between Actual and Hypothetical Stated Values: Further Investigation Using Meta-Analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(6), pages 1-13.
    18. Andrea Morone & Paola Tiranzoni, 2020. "Bargaining in a "Pawn Shop": A field experiment to study WTA," Framed Field Experiments 00702, The Field Experiments Website.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • Q26 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Recreational Aspects of Natural Resources

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