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Stability of the day of the week effect in return and in volatility at the Indian capital market: a GARCH approach with proper mean specification

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  • Kaushik Bhattacharya
  • Nityananda Sarkar
  • Debabrata Mukhopadhyay

Abstract

This paper examines the stability of the day of the week effect in returns and volatility at the Indian capital market, covering the period January 1991-September 2000. The paper specifies a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model on returns and introduces separate dummies for days in alternate weeks in the specification of both the mean and the conditional variance to examine the robustness of the day of the week effect in return and in volatility within a fortnight. Results are compared to those based on ordinary least squares (OLS) procedure to examine how erroneous the inference on day-level seasonality could be when the aspect of volatility is ignored. The paper finds evidence in favour of significant positive returns on non-reporting Thursday and Friday, in sharp contrast to the finding of significant positive returns only on non-reporting Monday by OLS procedure. Separate subperiod analyses reveal that there have been changes in daily seasonality in both returns and volatility since the mid-1990s at the Indian capital market, manifested in the opposite signs and changes in the level of significance of some similar coefficients across periods. These findings on the day of the week effects along with its variation within a fortnight suggest that stock exchange regulations and the nature of interaction between the banking sector with the capital market could possibly throw valuable insights on the origin of the day of the week/fortnight effect in returns, while interexchange arbitrage opportunities due to differences in settlement period could lead to a seasonality in volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaushik Bhattacharya & Nityananda Sarkar & Debabrata Mukhopadhyay, 2003. "Stability of the day of the week effect in return and in volatility at the Indian capital market: a GARCH approach with proper mean specification," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 553-563.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:13:y:2003:i:8:p:553-563
    DOI: 10.1080/0960310021000020924
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    Cited by:

    1. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan, 2013. "DOW effects in returns and in volatility of stock markets during quiet and turbulent times," MPRA Paper 47218, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Apr 2013.
    2. P., Srinivasan & M., Kalaivani, 2013. "Day-of-the-Week Effects in the Indian stock market," MPRA Paper 46805, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Francesco Guidi & Rakesh Gupta & Suneel Maheshwari, 2011. "Weak-form Market Efficiency and Calendar Anomalies for Eastern Europe Equity Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 10(3), pages 337-389, December.
    4. Jamshed Y. Uppal & Inayat U. Mangla, 2006. "Market Volatility, Manipulation, and Regulatory Response: A Comparative Study of Bombay and Karachi Stock Markets," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 1071-1083.
    5. Auer, Benjamin R. & Rottmann, Horst, 2014. "Is there a Friday the 13th effect in emerging Asian stock markets?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(C), pages 17-26.
    6. Högholm, Kenneth & Knif, Johan, 2009. "The impact of portfolio aggregation on day-of-the-week effect: Evidence from Finland," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 67-79.
    7. Erik Theissen, 2007. "An analysis of private investors' stock market return forecasts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 35-43.
    8. Baker, H. Kent & Rahman, Abdul & Saadi, Samir, 2008. "The day-of-the-week effect and conditional volatility: Sensitivity of error distributional assumptions," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 280-295, December.
    9. Auer, Benjamin R., 2014. "Daily seasonality in crude oil returns and volatilities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 82-88.
    10. Dicle, Mehmet F. & Beyhan, Aydin & Yao, Lee J., 2010. "Market efficiency and international diversification: Evidence from India," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 313-339, April.
    11. Amélie Charles, 2010. "Does the day-of-the-week effect on volatility improve the volatility forecasts?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 257-262, February.
    12. Sumra Abbas & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2015. "The Day-of-the-Week Anomaly in Market Returns, Volume and Volatility in SAARC Countries," PIDE-Working Papers 2015:129, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    13. Pawel STRAWINSKI & Robert SLEPACZUK, 2008. "Analysis Of High Frequency Data On The Warsaw Stock Exchange In The Context Of Efficient Market Hypothesis," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(3(5)_Fall), pages 306-319.
    14. Jamshed Y. Uppal & Inayat U. Mangla, 2006. "Regulatory Response to Market Volatility and Manipulation: A Case Study of Mumbai and Karachi Stock Exchanges," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 11(2), pages 79-105, Jul-Dec.
    15. Nickolaos Tsangarakis, 2007. "The day-of-the-week effect in the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE)," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(17), pages 1447-1454.
    16. Strawinski, Pawel & Slepaczuk, Robert, 2008. "Analysis of HF data on the WSE in the context of EMH," MPRA Paper 9532, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Kenneth Hogholm & Johan Knif & Seppo Pynnonen, 2011. "Common and local asymmetry and day-of-the-week effects among EU equity markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 219-227.

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