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Evidence of market inefficiency in a war environment


  • David Chappell
  • Robert Eldridge


This paper examines the UK FT30 stock index during the Second World War period 1939-1945 for weak form efficiency, showing that there is substantial structure in the data, albeit in two distinct subsets. Fitting a GARCH (p, q) model to each data subset yields R -2 values of around 19%; clear evidence that the data do not follow a random walk. The weak-form efficiency hypothesis is therefore rejected.

Suggested Citation

  • David Chappell & Robert Eldridge, 2000. "Evidence of market inefficiency in a war environment," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 489-492.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:10:y:2000:i:5:p:489-492 DOI: 10.1080/096031000416361

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Andrew Clare & Raymond O'Brien & Stephen Thomas & Michael Wickens, "undated". "Macroeconomic Shocks and the Domestic CAPM: Evidence from the UK Stock Market," Discussion Papers 94/10, Department of Economics, University of York.
    2. Thoms, S. H., 1993. "An international CAPM for bonds and equities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 390-412, August.
    3. J. Tobin, 1958. "Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 65-86.
    4. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & MacArthur, Alan T., 1988. "Political vs. currency premia in international real interest differentials : A study of forward rates for 24 countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1083-1114, June.
    5. Engel, Charles & Rodrigues, Anthony P, 1989. "Tests of International CAPM with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 119-138, April-Jun.
    6. Tobin, James, 1982. "Money and Finance in the Macroeconomic Process," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 171-204, May.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    8. Engel, Charles M & Rodrigues, Anthony P, 1993. "Tests of Mean-Variance Efficiency of International Equity Markets," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 403-421, July.
    9. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Theodore Panagiotidis, 2010. "Market efficiency and the Euro: the case of the Athens stock exchange," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 37(3), pages 237-251, July.
    2. Amelie Brune & Thorsten Hens & Marc Rieger & Mei Wang, 2015. "The war puzzle: contradictory effects of international conflicts on stock markets," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 62(1), pages 1-21, March.
    3. Marie-Anne Cam & Vikash Ramiah, 2014. "The influence of systematic risk factors and econometric adjustments in catastrophic event studies," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 171-189, February.

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