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Stochastic unit roots modelling of stock price indices


  • Robert Sollis
  • Paul Newbold
  • Stephen Leybourne


Recently developed methodology to allow the possibility of a stochastic unit root process as an alternative to a fixed parameter unit root model is applied to six national indices of stock market prices. Evidence supporting the stochastic unit root hypothesis is found. However, the implementation of this model generally leads to only very minuscule gains in the prediction of daily prices, except in the case of the Hang Seng index, where the predictive gain is somewhat larger.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Sollis & Paul Newbold & Stephen Leybourne, 2000. "Stochastic unit roots modelling of stock price indices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 311-315.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:10:y:2000:i:3:p:311-315 DOI: 10.1080/096031000331716

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Daisuke Nagakura, 2009. "Inconsistency of a Unit Root Test against Stochastic Unit Root Processes," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-23, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    2. Jacek Kwiatkowski, 2006. "A Bayesian Estimation and Testing of STUR Models with Application to Polish Financial Time Series," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 7, pages 151-160.
    3. Yoon, Gawon, 2004. "On the existence of expected utility with CRRA under STUR," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 219-224, May.
    4. Daisuke Nagakura, 2007. "Testing for Coefficient Stability of AR(1) Model When the Null is an Integrated or a Stationary Process," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-20, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    5. Yoon, Gawon, 2005. "Has the U.S. economy really become less correlated with that of the rest of the world?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 147-158, January.
    6. Gawon Yoon, 2005. "Stochastic Unit Roots in the Capital Asset Pricing Model?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(4), pages 369-389, October.
    7. Nagakura, Daisuke, 2009. "Asymptotic theory for explosive random coefficient autoregressive models and inconsistency of a unit root test against a stochastic unit root process," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(24), pages 2476-2483, December.

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