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An empirical approach for directly accounting for expectations in behavioural models

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  • A. J. Hekman
  • D. B. Deisenroth

Abstract

Demand and choice behaviour models in economic literature often involve demand determinants such as product quality. In theory, decisions are based on expected quality; however, in practice, reported or actual values are used as a proxy for expectations. This paper presents a novel approach to measure expectations directly and then compares the predictive success of this explanatory variable with that of the traditional reported values in modelling behaviour. We use recreational fisheries as a case study, and find, as expected, that a priori expected catch rates are a better determinant of demand than ex post revealed catch rates.

Suggested Citation

  • A. J. Hekman & D. B. Deisenroth, 2013. "An empirical approach for directly accounting for expectations in behavioural models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(14), pages 1318-1321, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:20:y:2013:i:14:p:1318-1321
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2013.802087
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    3. Timothy C. Haab & Kenneth E. McConnell, 2002. "Valuing Environmental and Natural Resources," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2427.
    4. Englin, Jeffrey & Shonkwiler, J S, 1995. "Estimating Social Welfare Using Count Data Models: An Application to Long-Run Recreation Demand under Conditions of Endogenous Stratification and Truncation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 104-112, February.
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