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IGARCH models and structural breaks

Author

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Nikitas Pittis
  • Nicola Spagnolo

Abstract

Using Monte Carlo simulations, it is shown that fitting a mis-specified GARCH model to a true MS-GARCH process tends to produce IGARCH parameter estimates. In other words, the presence of structural breaks can result in spuriously high estimates of the degree of persistence of shocks to the conditional variance.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Nikitas Pittis & Nicola Spagnolo, 2003. "IGARCH models and structural breaks," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(12), pages 765-768.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:10:y:2003:i:12:p:765-768
    DOI: 10.1080/1350485032000138403
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    2. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
    3. Philip Hans Franses, 1995. "IGARCH and variance change in the US long-run interest rate," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 113-114.
    4. C. Morana, 2002. "IGARCH effects: an interpretation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(11), pages 745-748.
    5. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-234, April.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    7. Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "Stationarity and Persistence in the GARCH(1,1) Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(03), pages 318-334, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kuper, Gerard H. & Mulder, Machiel, 2016. "Cross-border constraints, institutional changes and integration of the Dutch–German gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 182-192.
    2. Michael Frömmel, 2010. "Volatility Regimes in Central and Eastern European Countries’ Exchange Rates," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(1), pages 2-21, February.
    3. Tronzano, Marco, 2009. "Assessing the Volatility of the Euro on Foreign Exchange Markets: Further Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 62(1), pages 103-131.
    4. Paolella, Marc S. & Polak, Paweł, 2015. "ALRIGHT: Asymmetric LaRge-scale (I)GARCH with Hetero-Tails," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 282-297.
    5. repec:dgr:rugsom:13004-eef is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Heaney, Richard & Sriananthakumar, Sivagowry, 2012. "Time-varying correlation between stock market returns and real estate returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 583-594.
    7. repec:gam:jjrfmx:v:10:y:2017:i:4:p:17-:d:113895 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Hu Liang & Shin Yongcheol, 2008. "Optimal Test for Markov Switching GARCH Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-27, September.

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