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China’s fare share? The growth of Chinese exports in world trade


  • Steven Husted


  • Shuichiro Nishioka



The growth of Chinese exports in market share over the past two decades is a singular event in the history of world trade. Using data from 1995–2010, we document this growth in a variety of ways. We show that the expanded trade is pervasive. Virtually every country in the world has seen China claim a larger share of its import market. Then, we use Constant Market Share analysis to determine which country or countries have lost market share as China’s trade has grown. Contrary to much discussion in the popular press, we find strong evidence that other developing countries have not seen export shares fall as a result of China’s gains. Rather, our results suggest that China’s share growth has come largely at the expense of exporters based in developed countries, especially Japan and the United States. Copyright Kiel Institute 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Husted & Shuichiro Nishioka, 2013. "China’s fare share? The growth of Chinese exports in world trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 149(3), pages 565-585, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:149:y:2013:i:3:p:565-585
    DOI: 10.1007/s10290-013-0149-2

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
    2. Michael G. Plummer (ed.), 2004. "Empirical Methods in International Trade," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3447.
    3. James Cassing & Steven Husted, 2009. "Transient products but persistent trade patterns," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 36(6), pages 583-595, October.
    4. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "What's So Special about China's Exports?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(5), pages 1-19.
    5. Adrian Wood & Jörg Mayer, 2011. "Has China de-industrialised other developing countries?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(2), pages 325-350, June.
    6. Hallak, Juan Carlos, 2006. "Product quality and the direction of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 238-265, January.
    7. Kalina Manova & Zhiwei Zhang, 2008. "China's exporters and importers: firms, products, and trade partners," Working Paper Series 2008-28, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    8. Robert Koopman & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2008. "How Much of Chinese Exports is Really Made In China? Assessing Domestic Value-Added When Processing Trade is Pervasive," NBER Working Papers 14109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Jan Fagerberg & Gunnar Sollie, 1987. "The method of constant market shares analysis reconsidered," Working Papers Archives 1987001, Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo.
    10. Rauch, James E., 1999. "Networks versus markets in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 7-35, June.
    11. Peter K. Schott, 2008. "The relative sophistication of Chinese exports," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 23, pages 5-49, January.
    12. Richardson, J. David, 1971. "Constant-market-shares analysis of export growth," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 227-239, May.
    13. Lee Branstetter & C. Fritz Foley, 2007. "Facts and Fallacies about U.S. FDI in China," NBER Working Papers 13470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Angela Cheptea & Lionel Fontagné & Soledad Zignago, 2014. "European export performance," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(1), pages 25-58, February.
    2. Soumyananda Dinda, 2014. "China integrates Asia with the world: an empirical study," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 70-89, May.
    3. Dinda, Soumyananda, 2015. "Impact of China’s slowdown on the Global Economy: Modified GVAR Approach," MPRA Paper 72472, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Sep 2015.
    4. Eugene Bempong Nyantakyi & Steven Husted & Shuichiro Nishioka, 2015. "Trade Frictions and Market Access of Developing Countries: A Product-level Empirical Investigation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 924-945, November.
    5. repec:pit:wpaper:521 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Steven Husted & Shuichiro Nishioka, 2015. "Productivity growth and new market entry," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 151(4), pages 687-712, November.
    7. Bernard, Christophe & Calmette, Marie-Françoise & Kilkenny, Maureen & Loustalan, Catherine & Pechoux, Isabelle, 2014. "Quality in Open Markets: How Larger Leads to Less," TSE Working Papers 14-505, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).

    More about this item


    Chinese exports; Constant market share analysis; Export shares; F14; P33;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • P33 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid


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