Nonlinear error correction in spot and forward exchange rates
Recent research has increasingly suggested that exchange rates may be characterised by non-linear behaviour which results from the existence of market frictions. This paper examines whether such non-linear behaviour is evident, not in rates themselves, but in the adjustment of rates back to some fundamental equilibrium. Thus, we examine a series of six spot and forward exchange rates to see whether a non-linear error-correction model, which exhibits asymmetric adjustment back to equilibrium either in terms of the size of the deviation from equilibrium or the sign of the deviation outperforms either a random walk model for rates or a linear error-correction model. Our in-sample results suggest that the non-linear models outperform both the linear models, with evidence of significant sign and size threshold effects. Out-of-sample forecasts lend further support for the non-linear models.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 137 (2001)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com|
Postal:Kiellinie 66, D-24105 Kiel
Phone: +49 431 8814-1
Fax: +49 431 8814528
Web page: https://www.ifw-kiel.de/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/international+economics/journal/10290/PS2|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Escribano, Alvaro & Pfann, Gerard A., 1998.
"Non-linear error correction, asymmetric adjustment and cointegration,"
Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 197-216, April.
- Pfann, Gerard & Escribano, Álvaro, 1991. "Nonlinear error correction, asymmetric adjusment and cointegration," UC3M Working papers. Economics 2807, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
- Hua He and David M. Modest., 1992.
"Market Frictions and Consumption-Based Asset Pricing,"
Research Program in Finance Working Papers
RPF-223, University of California at Berkeley.
- He, Hua & Modest, David M, 1995. "Market Frictions and Consumption-Based Asset Pricing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 94-117, February.
- Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
- Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
- De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990.
"Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets,"
3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Maurice Obstfeld and Alan M. Taylor., 1997.
"Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited,"
Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers
C97-088, University of California at Berkeley.
- Obstfeld, Maurice & Taylor, Alan M., 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 441-479, December.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," NBER Working Papers 6053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Obstfeld, Maurice & Taylor, Alan M., 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 1672, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alvaro Escribano & Santiago Mira, 2001.
"Nonlinear error correction models,"
Documentos de trabajo conjunto ULL-ULPGC
2001-03, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas de la ULPGC.
- Mira, Santiago & Escribano, Álvaro, 1997. "Nonlinear error correction models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6206, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
- Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "The Noise Trader Approach to Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 19-33, Spring.
- Biais, Bruno & Hillion, Pierre, 1994. "Insider and Liquidity Trading in Stock and Options Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 743-80.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:137:y:2001:i:4:p:737-750. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Rebekah McClure)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.