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Assessing the Runoff Response to Vegetation Cover and Climate Change in a Typical Forested Headwater Watershed

Author

Listed:
  • Ge Zhang

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Jiacong Xue

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Wenting Liu

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Yuntao Wang

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Guoqiang Wang

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Baolin Xue

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

Abstract

River source areas play a critical role in water conservation and hydrological regulation. In recent years, climate change and human activities have significantly altered the runoff in forested headwater watersheds, yet the combined impacts of these environmental changes on ecologically fragile headwater zones remain insufficiently considered. This study employed a segmented calibration approach of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in the Kuduer River Basin, located in the Greater Khingan Mountains, to evaluate runoff responses to climate change and vegetation cover variations. The results revealed that: (1) From 1985 to 2019, the basin exhibits a warm-dry trend, with a slight reduction in runoff, an increase in forest area, and a decrease in grassland area; these patterns are more pronounced during change periods. (2) Runoff is positively correlated with precipitation and negatively correlated with temperature, showing higher sensitivity to precipitation changes. Forests play a crucial role in regulating water resources, and afforestation tends to reduce runoff volumes. (3) Sub-watershed analyses reveal spatial heterogeneity: upstream areas benefit from more stable runoff due to forest cover, whereas downstream areas display greater variability. Moreover, although both climate change and vegetation cover jointly influence runoff, climate change exerts a stronger effect. Given the high sensitivity of the hydrological response in this watershed, future management measures should take into account the negative impacts of climate change and human activities on water resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Ge Zhang & Jiacong Xue & Wenting Liu & Yuntao Wang & Guoqiang Wang & Baolin Xue, 2025. "Assessing the Runoff Response to Vegetation Cover and Climate Change in a Typical Forested Headwater Watershed," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 39(9), pages 4295-4315, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:39:y:2025:i:9:d:10.1007_s11269-025-04155-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-025-04155-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kim, Seokhyeon & Hwang, Soonho & Song, Jung-Hun & Lee, Hyunji & Kang, Moon-Seong, 2023. "Impact of irrigation reservoirs on budget of the watershed-scale water cycle under climate change," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    2. Saraswat, Chitresh & Kumar, Pankaj & Mishra, Binaya Kumar, 2016. "Assessment of stormwater runoff management practices and governance under climate change and urbanization: An analysis of Bangkok, Hanoi and Tokyo," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 101-117.
    3. Ankur Srivastava & Nikul Kumari & Minotshing Maza, 2020. "Hydrological Response to Agricultural Land Use Heterogeneity Using Variable Infiltration Capacity Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(12), pages 3779-3794, September.
    4. Haitao Yang & Hao Sun & Chao Jia & Tian Yang & Xiao Yang, 2024. "Future Climatic Projections and Hydrological Responses with a Data Driven Method: A Regional Climate Model Perspective," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(5), pages 1693-1710, March.
    5. Runxi Li & Chengshuai Liu & Yehai Tang & Chaojie Niu & Yang Fan & Qingyuan Luo & Caihong Hu, 2024. "Study on Runoff Simulation with Multi-source Precipitation Information Fusion Based on Multi-model Ensemble," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(15), pages 6139-6155, December.
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