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Impact of Climate Change on Water Diversion Risk of Inter‑Basin Water Diversion Project

Author

Listed:
  • Linhui Mu

    (Xi’an University of Technology)

  • Tao Bai

    (Xi’an University of Technology)

  • Dong Liu

    (Xi’an University of Technology)

  • Lei Li

    (Shaanxi Province Institute of Water Resources and Electric Power Investigation and Design)

Abstract

Reservoir operation of inter-basin water diversion project can effectively alleviate regional water shortage. However, future climate change will change regional runoff processes, which poses significant risks to the operation of inter-basin water diversion projects. The study considers occurrence probability of risk sources and risk-bearing bodies vulnerability, to constructs a risk operation system based on runoff forecast. Taking the inter-basin water diversion project from Hanjiang to Weihe River as a case, the study has made three contributions. Frist, the study uses the risk theory to derive the risk degree formula that consider multiple uncertain factors. Second, the difference in water diversion scale between risk operating and optimal operating is analyzed. The risk operating system can transfer the risk of water diversion from the dry period to the wet period, and reduce the probability of extreme risk. Third, the risk transfer law from water source area to water receiving area is quantified, and the influence law of risk source elements on risk degree is clarified. Risk source and risk bearing body in water receiving area are directly related to water shortage and its probability distribution. With the increase of water shortage probability, loss rate of socio-economic decreases. The research results have important application value for risk control of inter-basin water diversion projects and regional security of water supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Linhui Mu & Tao Bai & Dong Liu & Lei Li, 2024. "Impact of Climate Change on Water Diversion Risk of Inter‑Basin Water Diversion Project," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(8), pages 2731-2752, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:38:y:2024:i:8:d:10.1007_s11269-024-03777-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-024-03777-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shaokun He & Shenglian Guo & Guang Yang & Kebing Chen & Dedi Liu & Yanlai Zhou, 2020. "Optimizing Operation Rules of Cascade Reservoirs for Adapting Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(1), pages 101-120, January.
    2. W. W. Immerzeel & A. F. Lutz & M. Andrade & A. Bahl & H. Biemans & T. Bolch & S. Hyde & S. Brumby & B. J. Davies & A. C. Elmore & A. Emmer & M. Feng & A. Fernández & U. Haritashya & J. S. Kargel & M. , 2020. "Importance and vulnerability of the world’s water towers," Nature, Nature, vol. 577(7790), pages 364-369, January.
    3. Ahmed El-Shafie & Amr El-Shafie & Muhammad Mukhlisin, 2014. "New Approach: Integrated Risk-Stochastic Dynamic Model for Dam and Reservoir Optimization," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(8), pages 2093-2107, June.
    4. Tao Bai & Lei Li & Peng-fei Mu & Bao-zhu Pan & Jin Liu, 2023. "Impact of Climate Change on Water Transfer Scale of Inter-basin Water Diversion Project," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2505-2525, May.
    5. Zhang, Shuo & Kang, Yan & Gao, Xuan & Chen, Peiru & Cheng, Xiao & Song, Songbai & Li, Lingjie, 2023. "Optimal reservoir operation and risk analysis of agriculture water supply considering encounter uncertainty of precipitation in irrigation area and runoff from upstream," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
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    Cited by:

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    2. Francisco Soares Roque & Joana Darc Freire Medeiros, 2025. "Influence of Water Transfer between River Basins on the Operation of Water Systems in Semi-arid Regions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 39(1), pages 459-471, January.

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