IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v38y2024i9d10.1007_s11269-024-03819-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Reservoir Risk Operation of 'Domestic-Production-Ecology' Water Supply Based on Runoff Forecast Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Tao Bai

    (Xi’an University of Technology)

  • Qianglong Feng

    (Xi’an University of Technology)

  • Dong Liu

    (Xi’an University of Technology)

  • Chi Ju

    (Power China Kunming Engineering Corporation Limited)

Abstract

Water supply operation of a reservoir group is a critical strategy for mitigating conflicts between water resource supply and demand in a basin. However, the uncertainty of runoff forecast presents significant challenges to this operation. To explore the risk laws of the complex water supply process, this study focuses on analyzing the three primary source streams and the main stream of the Tarim River, the largest inland river in China. Initially, a runoff forecast model is developed utilizing Long Short-Term Memory Artificial Neural Networks (LSTM-ANN) to generate runoff datasets. Subsequently, a theoretically optimal operation process for the reservoir group is derived through a long-series deterministic multi-objective operation, which establishes boundary constraints for water supply risk operation. Finally, the runoff forecast results are integrated into an uncertainty water supply risk operation model to assess the associated water supply risk. The results indicate that: 1) Due to varying guarantee rates and water supply priorities among different sectors, the risk of ecological water supply is the highest, followed by agriculture and then domestic-production. 2) Within an effective forecast range of 0% to 20%, the most significant increase occurs when the error ranges between 5 to 10%. 3) As the reservoir regulation capacity in mountainous areas increases, the average water supply risk value for agriculture decreases from 0.086 to 0.040, representing a 53.1% risk reduction. The research results are of great significance to the reservoir group risk operation and the water supply safety in the basin.

Suggested Citation

  • Tao Bai & Qianglong Feng & Dong Liu & Chi Ju, 2024. "Reservoir Risk Operation of 'Domestic-Production-Ecology' Water Supply Based on Runoff Forecast Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(9), pages 3369-3388, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:38:y:2024:i:9:d:10.1007_s11269-024-03819-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-024-03819-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-024-03819-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-024-03819-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Shuo & Kang, Yan & Gao, Xuan & Chen, Peiru & Cheng, Xiao & Song, Songbai & Li, Lingjie, 2023. "Optimal reservoir operation and risk analysis of agriculture water supply considering encounter uncertainty of precipitation in irrigation area and runoff from upstream," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Linhui Mu & Tao Bai & Dong Liu & Lei Li, 2024. "Impact of Climate Change on Water Diversion Risk of Inter‑Basin Water Diversion Project," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(8), pages 2731-2752, June.
    2. Shaoyang Zhao & Mengxue Li & Xiang Cao, 2024. "Empowering Rural Development: Evidence from China on the Impact of Digital Village Construction on Farmland Scale Operation," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-19, June.
    3. Francisco Soares Roque & Joana Darc Freire Medeiros, 2025. "Influence of Water Transfer between River Basins on the Operation of Water Systems in Semi-arid Regions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 39(1), pages 459-471, January.
    4. Jiheun Kim & Yeonju Kim & Dong Hyeok Park & Tae-Woong Kim & Seung Beom Seo, 2025. "Scenario Neutral Based Multilateral Decision-Making Framework for Drought Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 39(4), pages 1503-1519, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:38:y:2024:i:9:d:10.1007_s11269-024-03819-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.